The Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL) share price is trading 2.17% higher at the time of writing this morning, at $0.235 apiece. Over the past month, the company's share price has climbed 17.5%. Amplitude Energy is up 6.82% over the year, outpacing the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO).
For context, the All Ords is up 0.42% at the time of writing. The index has climbed 0.92% over the past month and is 4.55% higher for the year-to-date.
Amplitude Energy Limited (formerly Cooper Energy Limited) is an exploration and production company in Victoria that supplies gas and oil to the domestic market. The company has several major gas supply contracts with customers, including AGL Energy, Alinta Energy, EnergyAustralia, VISY, and Origin Energy, and is well-positioned for growth.
Here's what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has to say about the ASX All Ords stock.
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Set to surge
In a recent note to investors, the broker confirmed its outperform rating on Amplitude Energy shares. The broker also upgraded its 12-month target price to $0.38, up from $0.27 previously. That represents a potential 61.7% upside.
The broker's higher valuation is mostly due to the potential Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) benefit from its proposed upgrade to Patricia Baleen, a produced offshore gas field. The PRRT was introduced in 1988 to ensure Australians benefit from the oil and gas collectively owned.
"Federal govt has issued some fairly clear guidelines on the rules for receiving combination certificates for the PRRT. A certificate allows PRRT cost bases to be shared between licenses and combined for PRRT purposes. Ultimately this is a Ministerial decision, in this case the federal Minister for Resources (PRRT is a federal tax)," Macquarie said in its note.
The broker explains that once Amplitude Energy is confident in its production and/or gas storage plans with Patricia Baleen, it will apply for a production license. Once the new license is issued, the company has 90 days to submit its request for a PRRT combination certificate.
"We are confident that Sole & Patricia Baleen meet the criteria of being "sufficiently related", given commingling both offshore and onshore. Patricia Baleen would incrementally help the government's focus in bolstering gas security & avoiding an energy crisis in Victoria/NSW (without greenfield development)", Macquarie said.
"Sole field depletion appears to be tracking towards an upper case (we now factor in some credit for this ahead of August reserves report) and the Patricia Baleen restart (and gas storage work) should provide a major PRRT benefit to our Orbost/Sole valuation (for now we include 50% of this benefit given it requires a decision from the federal resources minister once the retention lease VIC/RL16)."
What else does the broker have to say?
Macquarie is also happy with Amplitude Energy's Q4 results. The ASX All Ords stock achieved a record revenue in Q4 2025 of $70.7 million, up 12% on Q3 FY25. It also revealed a FY 2025 revenue of $267.7 million, which is 22% higher year-on-year.
"AEL's 4QFY25 results were a little better than expected, and whilst there was a focus on softness in cash conversion, this is simply a timing issue (if anything Minerva decommissioning spend may be coming in under-budget)," Macquarie said in its note.
The energy company is also undergoing a board renewal process. It has appointed Ian Davies as Chair, which Macquarie views positively.
"Attracting a Chair with a strong record of value creation & government/industry relationships speaks volumes. AEL has an exciting future ahead, with opportunities to unlock further value and play a key role in energy security in the important southern markets," the broker said.
