A "significant" increase in Australia's red wine supply could impact demand and pricing, a key industry report warns.
Australia's 2025 winegrape crush is estimated to be 1.57 million tonnes, according to Wine Australia.
That represents an 11% increase on the previous year's crush.
The year-on-year increase in the crush was driven by red varieties, up 20% over the period.
And the crush of white varieties was 2% higher than in 2024, according to the National Vintage Report 2025.
Crushing
Peter Bailey, manager, Market Insights at Wine Australia, said the mix of red versus white was problematic:
The significant increase in red varieties this year could exacerbate the challenges facing the sector in terms of excess stocks of red wine, and might further reduce demand for these varieties next vintage.
While the 2025 crush is up on the 2024 crush, it is still below the 10-year average of 1.71 million tonnes.
The smaller crush for 2025 relative to the long-term average is likely to have been a result of both seasonal and strategic factors.
Mr Bailey stated that a decline in demand for wine globally was likely driving adjustment in the Australian wine sector:
The 2025 crush equates to around 1.1 billion litres of wine, which is in line with current sales of Australian wine on domestic and export markets.
The total value of the Australian winegrape crush in 2025 is estimated to be $1.13 billion, a 14% increase on 2024's figure.
The report noted that the average purchase value for red and white grapes from cool or temperate regions both decreased.
However, there were increases in the average purchase value for both red and white grapes from warm inland regions.
Mr Bailey said that despite the increases, the average purchase values for warm inland reds in the past two years were the lowest in over a decade.
He said for many growers, this means production would not be economically viable:
Conditions are not likely to improve for red grapes until there is a significant reduction in the supply base.
The wine sector needs to continue to work together to bring supply and demand back into balance at a profitable price point for growers and winemakers.
Turned
Australia's wine producers have faced multiple challenges over the past few years.
Consumers have been turning away from wine and alcohol due to health and wellness concerns.
Cost-of-living pressures have impacted spending habits, supply chain issues have exacerbated costs, and market turmoil resulting from Trump's tariffs has added to the industry's plight.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE), one of the world's top five wine producers, has not escaped the fallout.
At one point back in 2018, Treasury Wine shares were changing hands for about $19.27 each.
Today, Treasury Wine shares can be snapped up for $7.95 apiece.
For some, Treasury Wine's beaten-down share price represents an opportunity.
Broker Bell Potter has a price target of $10.23 on Treasury Wine shares.
Based on Treasury Wine's current valuation, that represents a potential upside of 29% over the next 12 months.
