Up 48% this year, does Macquarie think Lynas Rare Earths has further to run?

Changing market dynamics.

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ASX 200 mining company Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) ended last week on a high note, with its share price surging 16.65% on Friday to close at $9.67.

This impressive one-day gain brings Lynas' year-to-date share price increase to 48%, much to the delight of its shareholders.

In comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) slipped 0.073% on Friday and has only managed a modest 4.2% rise since the beginning of the year.

Curiously, Lynas didn't release any company-specific news to trigger Friday's rally.

Instead, there was a big development in America which sparked investor interest in the rare earths producer.

What happened?

Over in the US, fellow rare earths miner MP Materials (NYSE: MP) made headlines on Thursday after announcing a deal with the Pentagon, which will acquire a 15% stake in the company.

The agreement is expected to facilitate MP Materials' expansion, including the development of a new facility for manufacturing rare earth magnets.

Investors responded with fervour, sending MP Materials' share price soaring by about 50% during Thursday's trading session in the US.

So what?

MP Materials operates the only rare earths mine in America – and these critical elements are becoming increasingly important in the modern-day world.

Rare earths consist of 17 elements essential to a wide range of industries, including clean energy, automotive technology, consumer electronics, and robotics.

Of particular importance are two elements: neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr).

These are vital components in the production of permanent magnets which power electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, e-bikes, and various consumer electronics.

And Lynas has plenty of both.

But here's where it really gets interesting.

China produces about 95% of all the world's rare earth magnets and processes some 90% of all rare earth metals.

This concentrated supply has prompted Western nations to reduce their dependence on China and seek new sources of rare earths for their own economies.

Globally significant

Lynas owns the Mt Weld mine in Western Australia which is widely regarded as one of the premier rare earths deposits worldwide.

In addition, the company also operates the world's largest rare earths processing facility in Malaysia.

Here, it produces separated rare earth materials for export to international markets such as the US.

In essence, Lynas claims to be the only major producer of separated rare earth materials outside of China.

More upside to come?

Just before the major news out of the US, leading broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) weighed in on Lynas.

Interestingly, Macquarie saw limited further upside for the stock after its share price already rallied 27% this year, prior to Friday's 16.65% ascent.

As a result, the broker issued an 'underperform' rating on Lynas with a price target of $8.00.

This projection equates to 17.27% downside from Friday's closing price of $9.67.

It remains to be seen whether the Pentagon's deal with MP Materials – and the possible strategic implications for Lynas – will prompt Macquarie to revise its view.

We will have to wait for the broker's next report to find out.

Motley Fool contributor Bart Bogacz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended MP Materials. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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