Up 48% this year, does Macquarie think Lynas Rare Earths has further to run?

Changing market dynamics.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

ASX 200 mining company Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) ended last week on a high note, with its share price surging 16.65% on Friday to close at $9.67.

This impressive one-day gain brings Lynas' year-to-date share price increase to 48%, much to the delight of its shareholders.

In comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) slipped 0.073% on Friday and has only managed a modest 4.2% rise since the beginning of the year.

Curiously, Lynas didn't release any company-specific news to trigger Friday's rally.

Instead, there was a big development in America which sparked investor interest in the rare earths producer.

Machinery at a mine site.

Image source: Getty Images

What happened?

Over in the US, fellow rare earths miner MP Materials (NYSE: MP) made headlines on Thursday after announcing a deal with the Pentagon, which will acquire a 15% stake in the company.

The agreement is expected to facilitate MP Materials' expansion, including the development of a new facility for manufacturing rare earth magnets.

Investors responded with fervour, sending MP Materials' share price soaring by about 50% during Thursday's trading session in the US.

So what?

MP Materials operates the only rare earths mine in America – and these critical elements are becoming increasingly important in the modern-day world.

Rare earths consist of 17 elements essential to a wide range of industries, including clean energy, automotive technology, consumer electronics, and robotics.

Of particular importance are two elements: neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr).

These are vital components in the production of permanent magnets which power electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, e-bikes, and various consumer electronics.

And Lynas has plenty of both.

But here's where it really gets interesting.

China produces about 95% of all the world's rare earth magnets and processes some 90% of all rare earth metals.

This concentrated supply has prompted Western nations to reduce their dependence on China and seek new sources of rare earths for their own economies.

Globally significant

Lynas owns the Mt Weld mine in Western Australia which is widely regarded as one of the premier rare earths deposits worldwide.

In addition, the company also operates the world's largest rare earths processing facility in Malaysia.

Here, it produces separated rare earth materials for export to international markets such as the US.

In essence, Lynas claims to be the only major producer of separated rare earth materials outside of China.

More upside to come?

Just before the major news out of the US, leading broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) weighed in on Lynas.

Interestingly, Macquarie saw limited further upside for the stock after its share price already rallied 27% this year, prior to Friday's 16.65% ascent.

As a result, the broker issued an 'underperform' rating on Lynas with a price target of $8.00.

This projection equates to 17.27% downside from Friday's closing price of $9.67.

It remains to be seen whether the Pentagon's deal with MP Materials – and the possible strategic implications for Lynas – will prompt Macquarie to revise its view.

We will have to wait for the broker's next report to find out.

Motley Fool contributor Bart Bogacz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended MP Materials. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

A smiling woman holds a Facebook like sign above her head.
Broker Notes

5 ASX shares scoring upgraded ratings this week

Experts have raised their ratings on JB Hi-Fi, Beach Energy, Amcor, and others this week.

Read more »

A man sitting at his dining table looks at his laptop and ponders the share price.
Broker Notes

Down 65%: Is this ASX 300 stock a cheap buy?

This stock has been sold off. Has this created a buying opportunity? Let's see what Bell Potter is saying.

Read more »

Three guys in shirts and ties give the thumbs down.
Broker Notes

5 ASX All Ords shares downgraded by brokers this week

Brokers have reduced their ratings on PLS Group, Fortescue, Webjet, and others this week.

Read more »

A man sits in contemplation on his sofa looking at his phone as though he has just heard some serious or interesting news.
Broker Notes

Does Ord Minnett rate Goodman shares as a buy, hold, or sell?

The broker has been looking at a big agreement signed this month.

Read more »

Red sell button on an Apple keyboard.
Broker Notes

Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Westpac shares

A leading analyst delivers his verdict on Westpac shares.

Read more »

A woman wearing a black and white striped t-shirt looks to the sky with her hand to her chin, contemplating buying ASX shares.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Minerals 260, 4DMedical, Karoon Energy shares

Two experts share their latest ratings and opinions on three ASX shares.

Read more »

Two mining workers in orange high vis vests walk and talk at a mining site.
Resources Shares

Morgans tips 1 ASX mining share to rip — and 1 to avoid — in 2026

Morgans has revised its ratings on an ASX 200 lithium share and an ASX 200 gold stock.

Read more »

Woman and man calculating a dividend yield.
Broker Notes

What is Morgans saying about Stanmore Resources and Suncorp shares after results?

Are these shares a buy, hold, or sell?

Read more »