Up 48% this year, does Macquarie think Lynas Rare Earths has further to run?

Changing market dynamics.

| More on:
Machinery at a mine site.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

ASX 200 mining company Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) ended last week on a high note, with its share price surging 16.65% on Friday to close at $9.67.

This impressive one-day gain brings Lynas' year-to-date share price increase to 48%, much to the delight of its shareholders.

In comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) slipped 0.073% on Friday and has only managed a modest 4.2% rise since the beginning of the year.

Curiously, Lynas didn't release any company-specific news to trigger Friday's rally.

Instead, there was a big development in America which sparked investor interest in the rare earths producer.

What happened?

Over in the US, fellow rare earths miner MP Materials (NYSE: MP) made headlines on Thursday after announcing a deal with the Pentagon, which will acquire a 15% stake in the company.

The agreement is expected to facilitate MP Materials' expansion, including the development of a new facility for manufacturing rare earth magnets.

Investors responded with fervour, sending MP Materials' share price soaring by about 50% during Thursday's trading session in the US.

So what?

MP Materials operates the only rare earths mine in America – and these critical elements are becoming increasingly important in the modern-day world.

Rare earths consist of 17 elements essential to a wide range of industries, including clean energy, automotive technology, consumer electronics, and robotics.

Of particular importance are two elements: neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr).

These are vital components in the production of permanent magnets which power electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, e-bikes, and various consumer electronics.

And Lynas has plenty of both.

But here's where it really gets interesting.

China produces about 95% of all the world's rare earth magnets and processes some 90% of all rare earth metals.

This concentrated supply has prompted Western nations to reduce their dependence on China and seek new sources of rare earths for their own economies.

Globally significant

Lynas owns the Mt Weld mine in Western Australia which is widely regarded as one of the premier rare earths deposits worldwide.

In addition, the company also operates the world's largest rare earths processing facility in Malaysia.

Here, it produces separated rare earth materials for export to international markets such as the US.

In essence, Lynas claims to be the only major producer of separated rare earth materials outside of China.

More upside to come?

Just before the major news out of the US, leading broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) weighed in on Lynas.

Interestingly, Macquarie saw limited further upside for the stock after its share price already rallied 27% this year, prior to Friday's 16.65% ascent.

As a result, the broker issued an 'underperform' rating on Lynas with a price target of $8.00.

This projection equates to 17.27% downside from Friday's closing price of $9.67.

It remains to be seen whether the Pentagon's deal with MP Materials – and the possible strategic implications for Lynas – will prompt Macquarie to revise its view.

We will have to wait for the broker's next report to find out.

Motley Fool contributor Bart Bogacz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended MP Materials. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Two workers at an oil rig discuss operations.
Broker Notes

Should you buy Santos, Beach Energy or Woodside shares? Here's Macquarie's top pick

Macquarie has released its new share price expectations for Santos, Beach Energy and Woodside shares.

Read more »

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

person holding hat
Broker Notes

3 ASX 200 large-cap shares just re-rated by analysts

We reveal the latest views on an ASX 200 large-cap miner, retailer, and consumer staples leader.

Read more »

A young man goes over his finances and investment portfolio at home.
Broker Notes

Down 80% in 2025: Is it time to buy this beaten down ASX stock?

Let's see what Bell Potter is saying about this stock after its heavy decline.

Read more »

A white and black robot in the form of a human being stands in front of a green graphic holding a laptop and discussing robotics and automation ASX shares
Broker Notes

NextDC shares jump 11% on major OpenAI deal

This data centre operator will be home to the AI giant in Australia.

Read more »

A large clear wine glass on the left of the image filled with fifty dollar notes on a timber table with a wine cellar or cabinet with bottles in the background.
Broker Notes

Macquarie names 3 top dividend-paying ASX 200 shares to buy today

Macquarie expects these three dividend paying ASX 200 shares to outperform in 2026. Let’s see why.

Read more »

Confident male executive dressed in a dark blue suit leans against a doorway with his arms crossed in the corporate office
Broker Notes

Broker reveals ratings on 4 ASX 200 sector leaders

Prefer ASX 200 large-cap stocks? Here are some new ratings and price targets for four sector leaders.

Read more »

A young boy points and smiles as he eats fried chicken.
Broker Notes

Why brokers are bullish on this rapidly-growing ASX 200 share

This business is delivering tasty earnings growth…

Read more »