Many Australian investors seek out ASX stocks that can generate reliable passive income.
Dividend income is often used to supplement living costs, pay for a holiday, or help build an emergency fund.
ASX investors also get the benefit of the franking system. This makes fully franked dividends especially popular.
Historically, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) was considered a reliable dividend stock. It is regarded as a market leader, with predictable cash flows and a strong balance sheet.
However, its recent share price performance has weighed heavily on its dividend yield.
With a current yield of 2.65%, passive income from CBA shares is far less attractive than it once was.
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Where to from here?
Let's see what one expert had to say.
In a 9 July research note, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) provided its take on CBA's dividend outlook.
Given CBA's strong capital position, we expect the 2H25E dividend to rise to $2.66, exceeding consensus by 8 cents.
Macquarie is forecasting CBA to pay a total dividend of $4.91 in FY25, $4.98 in FY26, and $5.02 in FY27.
Looking at the dividend payout alone, this looks like reliable passive income.
What are the risks then?
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked investors by keeping the cash rate at 3.85%. However, economists and investors expect the RBA to cut the rate by 25 basis points in August and then several more times over the following months.
Macquarie said:
The outlook for interest rates remains a key uncertainty and risk for bank earnings. While the market was previously pricing in ~150bps of rate cuts (up from ~100bps in mid-May), the decision to leave rates unchanged in July surprised market participants, adding further uncertainty to the rate cut trajectory…we have increased our forecast to 125bps of rate cuts, but acknowledge downside risk if additional rate cuts materialise.
What does this mean?
While Macquarie expects CBA's dividend payment to hold up (and even increase) between now and FY27, a surprise from the RBA that leads to margin pressure could change this trajectory.
It's also worth noting that Macquarie currently has an underperform rating and price target of $105 on CBA shares.
Given that CBA shares closed at $179.42 on Friday, Macquarie expects a material decline over the next 12 months.
If this happens, CBA's yield will increase, not from an increase in the dividend payout, but due to its share price declining.
Should CBA shares return to 'fair value' over the next 12 months, CBA could be a great option for reliable passive income, at a much higher yield.
Foolish Takeaway
Macquarie expects CBA's dividend payment to remain steady over the next few years, providing reliable passive income. However, the broker continues to rate CBA as materially overvalued. Therefore, investors who buy CBA shares today could see their overall net worth decline over the next year.
ASX investors should wait for a lower share price before buying CBA shares for passive income.
