Investors in ASX 200 lithium miner Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) have enjoyed a fruitful year-to-date.
Shares in the company have lifted by 42.11% since the start of January to reach $0.81 per share at the close of trading on Friday.
In comparison, some of the leading ASX 200 lithium companies have fared much worse.
For instance, shares in lithium powerhouse Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) have dropped by 29.86% this year to last trade at $1.55 a pop.
And fellow West Australian miner Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) has seen its share price tumble by 20.85% to $27.49 each.
For context, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has increased by 4.2% since the beginning of the year.
Australia's newest lithium miner
Liontown is a relative newcomer to the lithium mining sector having only commenced production at its Kathleen Valley project in July last year.
Located in Western Australia, initial operations have focused on extracting shallow ore through open-pit mining.
However, the company is scaling up its efforts by developing deeper ore bodies and paving the way for Australia's first underground lithium mine.
Since commencing production, Liontown has already achieved $205 million in revenue as well as positive net cashflow from operating activities for two consecutive full quarters.
So, can investors expect further strength in the share price as the group advances its Kathleen Valley operation?
Analysts from leading Aussie broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have chimed in with their views ahead of Liontown's quarterly update due for release later this month.
Near term risks
In Macquarie's Critical Minerals Preview report released last Friday, the broker noted that it expects Liontown's production during the quarter to be in line with consensus estimates.
However, it estimates that total output for the second half of the 2025 financial year is likely to clock in at the lower end of guidance.
The broker also pointed to some risks that could impact Liontown's earnings and valuation.
It said:
Balancing production growth with capital investment is a key focus in the current low lithium price environment, in our view.
It added:
Geotechnical management of mining hard-rock pegmatites underground, variations in our capital and operating cost assumptions as well as the ramp-up profile of both the open pit and underground mines also present risks for LTR.
In turn, Macquarie placed an 'underperform' rating on Liontown with a share price target of $0.55.
Unfortunately for shareholders, this forecast implies a 32.1% decline in the company's share price from Friday's close of trading.
