The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price has shed 28.86% since its peak in late April.
The gold producer, which has projects in Australia and North America, quickly regained most of its losses when the share price spiked again in mid-June. But it has since crashed again by 27.34%.
At the close on Wednesday, the share price reached a six-month low of $16.37.
It's been a rollercoaster ride.
And many are questioning what is next.
But first, let's take a quick look at what has driven Northern Star's share price to this point.
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What happened to Northern Star
Overall, investors are concerned about the company's financial and operational outlook.
In late April 2025, Northern Star released its quarterly update. Gold sold totalled 385,000 ounces during the quarter, which was softer than expected. As a result, the company downgraded its full-year gold production forecast, citing operational difficulties at key mining sites.
The production downgrade raised doubts about the company's ability to meet investor expectations despite favorable gold prices and a strong balance sheet. As a result, the share price crashed.
But some analysts continued to be positive about the stock, explaining that the operation issues are a one-off and are unlikely to hinder the future growth pipeline.
In an operational update on Monday this week, the gold producer noted that FY25 gold sales and all-in sustaining costs were within the company's guidance. However, its FY26 guidance disappointed investors.
The company is forecast to deliver 1,700-1,850koz gold sold in FY26, with the September quarter production being the softest quarter (below the low end of guidance range), according to the update.
Northern Star attributed the softer FY26 start to "planned major shutdowns across all three production centres." The company cited several factors driving higher costs, including broader sector inflationary pressure (~5%), increased sustaining capital requirements from expanded development work, and processing capital investments across all facilities.
Analyst outlook for the ASX gold miner
Northern Star is scheduled to release its June quarterly results on 24 July.
Following the disappointing guidance, analyst sentiment is mixed.
BMO Capital lowered its price target on Northern Star this week to $24.00 from $27.00, but it maintains its outperform rating on the gold mining company.
Macquarie reiterated its outperform rating on the ASX 200 stock on 7 July. The broker set a price target of $27.00 on the stock, suggesting a potential 64.9% upside over the next 12 months.
Citi maintains its hold rating on Northern Star and lowered its price target to $21.00 from $22.00.
RBC Capital Markets also cut the gold producer's target price to $22.00 per share off the back of the financial guidance for FY26.
