Shares of ASX energy generator and retailer Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) have been a little stagnant in recent months. At the time of writing, Origin is going for $10.86 a share, up 0.14% for the day so far. However, Origin also happens to be, coincidentally, down 0.14% since the start of 2025.
Investors have also endured a 0.6% drop from Origin since this time last year.
It's not all lukewarm news, though. The Origin share price remains up by a healthy 82.6% over the past five years. Additionally, the company trades on a dividend yield of 5.3% today.
After paying out a record 55 cents per share in dividends in 2024 (fully franked too), Origin upped the ante again this year with a March interim dividend of 30 cents per share. That was a 9.1% rise over 2024's interim dividend of 27.5 cents.
Saying that, investors often buy shares of energy retailers like Origin with the expectation of relatively high and reliable dividends. So today, let's check out what a prominent ASX broker is saying about buying Origin shares.
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ASX broker not keen on buying Origin shares
In a recent note to clients, brokers at Macquarie maintained a neutral rating on the Origin share price. Despite this, the broker did increase its 12-month share price target from $10 per share to $10.12. Even so, if that were realised, it would see investors lose around 6.9% from where the shares are today.
The broker's neutrality stems from an anticipated softness in coal prices going forward being offset by falls in oil and (particularly) gas prices.
Even so, Macquarie did warn investors that an unexpected material drop in oil prices, or electricity prices more broadly, could have a negative impact on the company's future earnings.
However, the broker also argued that Origin could potentially mitigate some of this risk by accelerating its development of new battery sites on some of its "privileged locations".
Saying that, it's not all bad news for investors. Income seekers will be pleased to learn that Macquarie is expecting Origin to increase its full-year annual dividend to 60 cents a share for FY2025, a level it is predicting the company will maintain until at least FY2027. That's alongside maintenance of full franking, too.
If that does turn out to be the case, Origin shares would trade on a forward yield of 5.52% today.
Let's see if this ASX broker's assumptions turn out to be on the money.
