As the 2025 financial year comes to a close, a few ASX 200 companies are standing tall with triple-digit returns.
A 100% return (excluding dividends) of course means that the share price has doubled, and more than a few stunned investors are wondering how they missed that.
While no one should expect a stock to double every year, it's worth asking : can these winners keep winning in FY26? Or has the best already been priced in?
Let's take a look at three standout ASX 200 performers from FY25 and what might lie ahead.
Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) – up 122%
Gold has been the safe haven of choice over the last 12 months with its price surging 40% and eclipsing other traditional safe havens such as US bonds and the Swiss Franc.
Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, 29 June 2025.
This has in turn boosted gold miners such as Evolution Mining, but notice that recent peaks in gold prices have occurred in times of significant fear and uncertainty. This includes in April near 'Liberation Day' when the US Trump administration announced major global tariffs as well as earlier in June when conflict in the Middle East heightened.
So looking ahead, will there be more fear, uncertainty and major market volatility? If so, that might be good for gold prices but it's just so hard, if not impossible to predict if or when these things will occur.
Meanwhile, not everything is golden under the surface for Evolution Mining. Earlier this month, the company revealed that it had significantly reduced its gold resource estimate at its Red Lake mine in Canada by 4.5 million ounces. That's a big revision.
Essentially, after reassessing the geology, Evolution concluded that some of the gold they previously thought was there… actually isn't, or at least not in the same quality or volume. The update reflects more realistic assumptions about the gold underground and changes in mining cost estimates.
To be clear, this is more a bump in the road than a complete detour for Evolution Mining which has plenty of other reserves to be a success, but it does highlight that even high gold prices can't always overcome geological reality.
Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW) – up 121%
Temple & Webster's share price has surged 121% over the last 12 months, fuelled by accelerating sales growth and improved investor confidence in the business.
Investors are attracted to the company's asset-light business model and exposure to e-commerce for furniture. I expect these themes to remain attractive to investors over the long-term, but I'm less confident about the next 12 months.
After such a strong run, some multiple contraction (i.e. a decrease in valuation multiples) wouldn't be a surprise. Multiple contraction happens when a company's share price falls, not because its sales or profits are going down, but because investors are no longer willing to pay as much for each dollar of sales or earnings.
Analysts at Jefferies have flagged near-term risks for Temple & Webster including a stretched valuation, rising competition from omnichannel retailers, and execution uncertainty in new categories.
I think Temple & Webster still looks like a category winner, but FY26 may be more about consolidating gains than repeating them.
Technology One (ASX: TNE) – up 123%
TechnologyOne shares have soared 123% over the past year, driven by accelerating annual recurring revenue (ARR), margin expansion, and strong investor confidence in its SaaS+ model. In FY25, ARR surpassed $500 million (18 months ahead of target) while profit rose 33% and free cash flow more than doubled.
Much of this success has come from TechnologyOne's dominance in the government and higher education sectors, where customer retention is high and barriers to entry are steep. The transition to SaaS has also driven significant margin expansion and the company is focussed on its target of $1 billion ARR by FY30.
Clearly the business is performing really well but after such a strong run in the share price, valuation concerns are rising. FY26 may depend less on surprises, and more on flawless execution particularly in expanding its UK operations, scaling new verticals, and sustaining those high retention metrics investors have come to expect.
Technology One has firmly established itself as one of the top software companies on the ASX and a rare example of a local tech business that has scaled profitably over decades. While the long-term growth story remains intact, expectations are high and investors should be wary of short-term market volatility.
