Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF) shares have had a rough start to 2025.
Monash IVF operates 13 clinics and is Australia's second-largest IVF provider
Two unfortunate incidents have weighed negatively on the share price. For the year to date, Monash IVF shares have fallen 47%.
In April, the company disclosed that a Brisbane patient was mistakenly implanted with another patient's embryo. Monash IVF shares dropped a staggering 36% that day.
Then in June, it was revealed that a patient's own embryo had been incorrectly transferred back to them. This was contrary to the treatment plan, which designated the transfer of an embryo of the patient's partner.
This second mix up also weighed heavily on the share price, sending it down 25% on 10 June to a 52-week low of $0.55.
However, shares began to rally after the company's CEO announced his resignation.
Since 10 June, its shares are 22% higher. Investors looking for attractively valued ASX shares in the current environment may be wondering whether Monash IVF has been oversold.
Are Monash IVF shares undervalued?
Let's see what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) had to say.
In a 26 June research note, the broker reiterated its outperform rating on Monash IVF shares.
Macquarie has assigned a price target of $1.30 on the stock. Its shares are changing hands for $0.66 at the time of writing. That suggests 103% upside from here, including both capital growth and dividends.
In the research note, the broker wrote:
Despite incidents, we believe the share price has overreacted and valuation is attractive at current levels. We continue to see medium-longer term tailwinds for the IVF industry, with MVF well placed to capitalise on genetic testing growth.
Grand View Research expects the Australian in vitro fertilization market to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030.
Macquarie also reported that total Medicare IVF cycles declined 2.5% year-over-year in May, after rising 4.6% in April.
What could impact Macquarie's valuation?
The broker also described key risks to its investment thesis.
On the positive side:
Upside risk to our forecasts would be better-than-expected leverage to earnings from recruited specialists and genetic carrier screening driving IVF volume uplift.
On the negative side:
We see key downside risks to our Outperform recommendation from lower domestic market cycles, or less domestic market-share gain than anticipated.
Foolish Takeaway
Despite their recent rebound, Monash IVF shares are still down significantly this year. With the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) near its all time high, investors may be struggling to find attractive valued investment opportunities. Macquarie believes Monash IVF shares can deliver more than 100% upside from here over the next 12 months.
