Following its investor day, does Macquarie rate Fletcher Building shares a buy, hold or sell?

The New Zealand-based building and construction company updated its loss forecast at its investor day on 24 June.

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Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU) held its 2025 investor day in Auckland on Tuesday. 

The New Zealand-based building and construction company, which has diversified operations in both New Zealand and Australia, told investors that mounting losses will impact the company's full-year result to 30 June.

The annual result will be issued in August.

Managing director and group chief executive officer Andrew Reding told investors that the company expects earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) before "significant items" for the 2025 financial year to be in the range of $370 million to $375 million.

This is lower than prior EBIT guidance of $420 million.

Fletcher Building forecasts $573 million to $781 million of "significant items" will hit its bottom line this financial year.

This includes non-cash "significant items" between $250 million and $440 million and cash "significant items" of $50 million to $60 million.

The company flagged $251 million of "significant items" from Iplex Australia pipes ($177 million) and the disposal of Tradelink ($58 million) at its half-year results in February. 

Here's what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks of the stock following the company's investor day and loss forecast update.

Macquarie's view on Fletcher stock

In a note to investors today, Macquarie explains that the Fletcher Building dividend will be suspended until its new net debt target is met. 

The company itself sees little prospect of meaningful tailwind in New Zealand residential, commercial, or infrastructure volumes before the 2027 financial year.

In Australia, the building company expects this a little sooner, sometime in the 2026 financial year.

In light of the announcement, the broker maintains its underperform rating on the stock given the "predominantly negative catalysts".

It has also revised the target price on Fletcher Building's NZ stock down to NZ$1.80 from NZ$1.85. On the NZX, the stock is currently trading at around NZ$2.86.

On the ASX, Fletcher Building shares are 0.38% lower this morning, down to $2.66. The share price has fallen sharply since 11 June, down 13.63% over the past two weeks and offsetting gains made earlier in the year. 

For the year to date, the share price is up 3.29%.

In early June, the building materials company revealed that it had received ongoing inbound inquiries from parties interested in its businesses, including its Construction Division. 

However, management noted that no decisions have been made to sell any of its businesses. 

The company did not announce an update about a potential sale at its investor day.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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