Plunging iron ore prices continue to weigh on the ASX's major miners.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) have all seen their prices edge lower on Thursday.
The price of iron ore has dropped below US$93 on the Singapore Exchange, marking a 9-month low.
And analysts are expecting further declines.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have cut their iron ore price forecasts.
Goldman Sachs previously stated that it expects iron ore spot prices to average at around US$85 per tonne in the final quarter of this calendar year.
Citigroup has now lowered its three-month price forecast to $90 a tonne from $100, and the six-to-twelve-month target was cut to $85 from $90.
In a note, Citigroup analysts stated:
Steel demand in China is likely to remain weak over the coming months over the upcoming seasonal lull.
China is by far the world's largest importer of iron ore, accounting for about 70% of global trade.
Image source: Getty Images
Supply and demand
The ongoing tariff turmoil has certainly not increased China's demand for iron ore as the country cuts back steel production.
And, as China's demand for iron ore diminishes, supply continues to increase.
Rio Tinto this month announced it had opened a new mine in Western Australia with the capacity to produce up to 25 million tonnes of iron ore per year.
Adding to oversupply concerns, Rio Tinto's massive Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to begin shipments later this year.
Simandou is said to contain high-grade iron ore, estimated at around 1.5 billion tonnes, and is one of Africa's largest mining projects.
As such, downward pressure on the price of iron ore looks set to continue.
Bottom line
For years, shareholders have enjoyed solid returns from Australia's iron ore miners, particularly BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue.
Iron ore, Australia's largest export, has also been a crucial ingredient fuelling the country's prosperity.
As such, it's not only the country's iron ore miners and their shareholders that will feel the impact of falling iron ore prices.
Still, the major miners are likely to take a hit as the value of the commodity sinks.
UBS is projecting that BHP's revenue could drop more than US$2 billion to US$7.6 billion in FY26.
Australia's Department of Industry, Science, and Resources is not expecting things to turn around anytime soon for the country's iron ore miners.
The Department's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report forecasts Australia's iron ore export earnings to fall from around $117 billion in FY25 to about $109 billion in FY26.
Further declines could see export earnings drop to $81 billion in FY30, representing a decline of more than 30% from the FY25 figure.
