Investors interested in Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares may have already been impressed by the airline's ability to make strong profits in recent times.
The fact its earnings have held up after the initial post-COVID travel boom has been a positive surprise for shareholders.
But there are a number of uncertainties facing the market right now, particularly with the impact of US tariffs. However, we've also seen fuel prices decline in the last few months, which is a major positive for Qantas.
Let's examine where experts think the business' earnings could go in the next few years.
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FY25
The airline reported its FY25 first-half result in February, which showed the business generated statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $923 million, up 6%. The underlying profit before tax increased 11% to $1.39 billion.
This profit generation allowed the airline to pay a 'base' dividend to shareholders of $250 million, as well as a special dividend of $150 million.
Broker UBS said that Jetstar significantly beat expectations in HY25, while other segments missed expectations. Jetstar capacity increased 20%, revenue went up 16%, and operating profit (EBIT) jumped 35%. UBS said:
The performance reinforces the value of Qantas' dual brand strategy to adapt to demand conditions, which lately may have trended toward shorter haul and trade down. Qantas plans to continue growing the Jetstar brand faster than the mainline brand in both markets into FY26.
UBS also noted that Qantas has shifted to paying dividends to utilise its franking credit balance.
The broker is forecasting that for the full-year result, Qantas could generate $24.1 billion of revenue, $2.6 billion of EBIT and $1.66 billion of net profit. It's also predicting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.08 and a dividend per share of 33 cents.
At the current Qantas share price, it's valued at 10x FY25's estimated earnings with a possible (fully franked) dividend yield of 3%.
FY26
In the 2026 financial year, UBS predicts Qantas can deliver further financial improvements.
The broker expects that the airline will make $25.6 billion in revenue, $2.7 billion in EBIT, and $1.7 billion in net profit. This could turn into $1.13 of EPS and fund an annual dividend per share of 34 cents.
FY27
If the predictions come true, the 2027 financial year could be another pleasing year of growth for Qantas shares.
UBS forecasts Qantas' revenue to be $27 billion, EBIT to be $2.9 billion, and net profit to be $1.86 billion. This may mean the business could deliver $1.23 of EPS and pay a dividend per share of 37 cents.
FY28
Impressively, the 2028 financial year could show even further growth, if UBS is correct.
The airline could deliver $28.9 billion of revenue, $3.2 billion of EBIT, and $2 billion of net profit in FY28. This could mean $1.34 of EPS and a dividend per share of 40 cents.
FY29
The final year of this series of projections could be the strongest of all, which is exciting for long-term Qantas share investors.
UBS predicts that in FY29, the airline could generate $30.3 billion of revenue, $3.35 billion of EBIT, and $2.1 billion of net profit. That could mean Qantas delivers $1.41 of EPS and funds an annual dividend per share of 42 cents.
This means the airline could see net profit growth of 28.6% between FY25 and FY29, which seems quite appealing for a business priced at just 10x FY25's estimated earnings. It's valued at less than 8x FY28's estimated earnings.
