The Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) dividend is a popular option for Australian income investors.
And it has been a great one for them in recent years, with the telco giant's earnings recovery fuelling dividend increases for the last four years.
But can this run continue? Let's see what analysts are saying about the company's payouts after it unveiled its new Connected Future 30 strategy.
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Telstra dividend forecast
As a reminder, Telstra paid out total dividends of 18 cents per share in FY 2024. This was up approximately 3% from 17.5 cents per share a year earlier.
The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has been busy updating its estimates for the Telstra dividend following this week's strategy update. And the good news is that it feels this strategy leaves the telco giant well-placed to make larger payouts than it was previously expecting. It said:
We revise FY25/26/27/28e EPS by 3%/11%/8%/10%, reflecting updated FY25 capex and FCF guidance. Variance between NPAT and EPS is driven by the share buyback. We also reflect upcoming postpaid price increases and associated increases to sales, assuming some SIO loss from higher prices and associated spin-downs/churn. This is somewhat mitigated by competitor price increases. In the outer years, we reflect new debt gearing and cash earnings growth targets, as well as capital management in the form of greater dividend growth. This is amplified by completion of the buyback.
According to the note, Macquarie is now forecasting a 19.95 cents per share dividend for FY 2025. This will be an increase of 10.8% on the prior corresponding period. Based on the current Telstra share price of $4.80, this equates to a 4.15% dividend yield.
In FY 2026, Macquarie believes the company will lift its dividend by a further 10% to a fully franked 22 cents per share. This represents a 4.6% dividend yield at current prices.
The broker then expects a more modest increase of 4.5% in FY 2027 to 23 cents per share. This would mean a dividend yield of 4.8%.
And finally, Macquarie is forecasting a 7% lift in the Telstra dividend to 24.6 cents per share in FY 2028. This works out to be a fully franked 5.1% dividend yield.
In summary, this means:
- FY 2025 – 19.95 cents per share (4.15% yield)
- FY 2026 – 22 cents per share (4.6% yield)
- FY 2027 – 23 cents per share (4.8% yield)
- FY 2028 – 24.6 cents per share (5.1% yield)
As well as growing yields, Macquarie sees decent upside for its shares. It currently has an outperform rating and $5.28 price target on them.
