Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares have seen significant ups and downs over the past 12 months, as the chart below shows. As an investment bank, it's seen as a business that's exposed to global economic gyrations.
The ASX financial share recently reported its FY25 result, which revealed that net profit after tax (NPAT) rose 5% to $3.7 billion year-over-year, and the FY25 second half net profit increased 30% half over half to $2.1 billion.
Impressively, the business reported that two-thirds of its income came from international sources.
The scale of its assets under management (AUM) reached A$941 billion as at 31 March 2025, up 3% from September 2024.
Profit growth was solid in FY25. But how could earnings change/grow in the coming years? Let's have a look at what experts from UBS think could happen for Macquarie shareholders.
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FY26
UBS noted that the FY25 result benefited from asset sales within the Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) division and a lower tax rate in the second half of FY25 (of 23%). The broker also pointed out higher credit impairment charges during the period. With that in mind, Macquarie made some earnings forecast changes to reflect those themes.
It decided to raise its short-term cash earnings estimates for FY26 by 4.1%, but lowered the profit projections for FY27 by 1.6% and FY28 by 9.5%. The biggest reductions in earnings are expected from the MAM division, which is reportedly going through changes that will continue after the sale of the North American and European Public Investment business is finalised at the end of 2025.
For FY26, UBS is projecting that Macquarie's net profit could grow by 11.4% to $4.17 billion.
FY27
Despite reducing its estimate for the 2027 financial year, UBS still expects Macquarie to deliver profit growth.
The projected net profit growth is 4.8% to $4.37 billion, which owners of Macquarie shares may like to see.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could also see growth of net profit for the ASX financial share.
In FY28, UBS is predicting that Macquarie's net profit could climb by 5.9% to $4.63 billion.
FY29
FY29 is also projected to see profit growth, though this is quite far away, so the profit may ultimately be quite different to what's currently expected.
UBS is still projecting net profit to climb 4.4% year-over-year to $4.84 billion
FY30
The final year of this series of projections is expected to show positive growth as well.
As a global investment bank, it's not certain that earnings are going to climb every single year. But, for now, UBS is estimating that Macquarie's net profit could reach $5.05 billion in the 2030 financial year, which would represent year over year growth of 4.5%.
When UBS gave its view on Macquarie shares, it said:
The investment case in our view continues to hinge around asset realisations, capital deployment and performance fees in Private Markets, validation around the sustainability of profits within CGM and improvements in capital market activity, beneficial to MacCap.
The broker has a neutral rating on the investment bank, with a price target of $225. That implies a possible rise of 7% from where it is today.
