The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has soared in the last few weeks, having risen 27% from 9 April 2025. The ASX travel share has excited the market recently. However, it's now trading at a higher level, so it's worth questioning the airline is still an appealing investment.
Travel demand has been impressive in the last few years. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Qantas shares should keep going up and up from here.
Firstly, let's look at the most recent update from the business so we can gauge the profitability of the business.
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Latest performance by the business
The airline reported that in the six months to December 2024, the business reported $1.39 billion of underlying profit before tax (PBT), up 11%. Statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by 6% to $923 million and underlying earnings per share (EPS) jumped 21% to 63 cents.
Qantas reported that its performance was driven by the strength of its dual brand strategy with demand for travel remaining strong across all customer segments.
The Qantas and Jetstar domestic and international businesses delivered increased profitability, carrying close to 10% more customers. Premium and corporate travel remained strong for Qantas, while Jetstar carried a record number of customers.
Qantas' loyalty division also performed well, with active member engagement and cash inflows from partners growing by 11% and 18% respectively.
When the airline gave its outlook commentary, it said it expects strong travel demand across its portfolio heading into the second half. I think this is a very useful tailwind for the Qantas share price. Net freight revenue in the second half is expected to be $10 million to $30 million higher.
Is the Qantas share price a buy?
Pleasingly, with its result, the business announced a fully franked base dividend of $250 million, which is expected to be sustainable through the cycle, as well as a special dividend of $150 million. I think it's a good sign that the business can both pay dividends and fund purchases of new aircraft.
According to the forecast from UBS, Qantas is projected to generate $1.08 in EPS in FY25. That means the Qantas share price is valued at under 10x FY25's estimated earnings.
UBS is also expecting Qantas' earnings to slowly but steadily rise in each of the financial years between FY26 to FY29. If the business can grow profit, it could still be good value at under 10x FY25's estimated earnings. It's also valued at 7x FY29's estimated earnings.
I don't think it'll be the best performer on the ASX from here, but I think it could continue delivering positive returns for investors over the longer-term if travel demand remains strong. Lower-than-expected fuel prices would be a very useful bonus, if that happens.
