It's not getting much airtime, but a recently released research report by Macquarie reckons the New Zealand retirement village sector might be one of the more interesting opportunities hiding in plain sight for ASX investors.
House prices in New Zealand have been on the nose for a while and even as recently as April 2025, median house prices in NZ were still down 1.1% year-over-year.
Of course, what matters in investing is focussing on the future and that's where things get interesting.
Macquarie reckons the retirement village sector in NZ is well positioned to take advantage of cheap valuations and a rebuilding of momentum in the industry.
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How can ASX investors benefit?
Thankfully, you don't need to jump on a plane to go looking for a house in NZ to benefit from this.
At the centre of this quiet optimism, Macquarie has identified two ASX shares that are worth knowing: Oceania Healthcare (ASX: OCA) and Summerset Group Holdings (ASX: SNZ). Both are dual-listed on the ASX and NZX, and both are starting to see tailwinds from a slowly improving NZ housing market.
Summerset is Macquarie's top pick in the sector. Why? It's the only one that can really accelerate development if demand strengthens. Sales momentum is already improving, and the company's pivot to focus on Independent Living Units (ILUs) — which are typically higher-margin — could prove to be a savvy move as housing stabilises.
Oceania on the other hand, looks like more of a classic value play. The stock trades at just 0.5x book value, and Macquarie sees potential for a re-rating if execution improves. Sales at The Helier, a luxury village in Auckland, should help reduce debt, and the focus on cash collection and cost reduction could support Oceania's margin recovery. It's not without risk, but the upside looks interesting if management can deliver.
Of course, none of this is without its risks and caveats. Rising capex, staffing costs, and a still-wobbly property market could trip things up. But if the NZ housing market keeps improving in the second half of 2025 — as Macquarie expects — then these two ASX shares might quietly start to shine.
In a market where growth is uncertain and value is hard to find, Oceania and Summerset could be worth putting on your watchlist.
