ASX dividend share New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) has taken a hit in 2025, with the stock down 21.56% year to date.
Despite this, shares in the coal miner currently fetch $3.93 apiece, around their highest price in over a month as global markets stage a recovery following a rout of volatility.
Does New Hope offer a tempting buy for income-seeking investors, or should one stay clear? Let's dive in and see.
ASX dividend share takes a hit
New Hope's share price has been under pressure in 2025 as global markets endured a sharp sell-off in April and the price of coal declined.
The black rock is trading at US$99 per tonne at the time of writing, a sharp fall from its high of US$157 per tonne in October last year.
Behind the price weakness in coal? According to Trading Economics, weaker demand, both thanks to renewable energy and slower sales in major consumer China.
[Coal] futures were down 20% this year amid an increasing share of power generation from renewable sources and lower demand for heating due to a warmer Chinese winter. Consequently, Chinese fossil-fuel power output dropped by 4.7% annually in the first quarter, driving imports of thermal coal to sink 13.1% annually to 91.5 million tons in the year to April.
Despite the price weakness, analysts believe this ASX dividend share has strong income-generating potential.
And this is important, because New Hope is known for paying fat, chunky dividends to investors when it matters. That is, in the good times, and the bad.
Recall that the company operates some of Australia's key thermal coal mines. Even as prices have fluctuated significantly over the last few years, New Hope has consistently paid a stream of healthy dividends each year.
See for yourself below:
| Year | Dividend Per Share |
| 2020 | 6 cents |
| 2021 | 11 cents |
| 2022 | 86 cents |
| 2023 | 70 cents |
| 2024 | 39 cents |
| Trailing 12 months | 41 cents |
A 10% yield still on offer?
Not quite. This ASX dividend share pays a 10% trailing yield, meaning that figure is pegged to the current share price and the trailing 12-month dividend.
At a share price of $3.93, and having paid around 41 cents per share in dividends over this time, the prevailing yield is about 10.4%, excluding any franking credits.
What matters for investors interested in buying New Hope today is the forward yield, the estimated dividends compared to the current stock price.
The consensus of analyst estimates puts this at 27.1 cents per share this year, and 27 cents per share in 2026, according to CommSec.
Say that view is correct, and say an investor bought this ASX dividend share at $3.94 each today, that equates to forward yields of about 7% in both of those years.
Not bad, but not 10% either. Note, these figures exclude any impact from franking credits, which, when combined, could certainly bring the forward yield above that mark.
Time will tell if New Hope surprises to the upside with a higher forward payout, or if the price of coal surges higher, giving New Hope more free cash flow to disburse to investors.
But for now, this ASX dividend share looks set to pay a 7% un-grossed yield at today's share price and consensus dividend estimates.
Foolish Takeaway
This ASX dividend share has had a difficult start to the year, but it still offers a respectable dividend yield for investors to consider.
Is it still above 10%? At current prices and forward estimates, and excluding franking credits, then no. It is currently around the 7% yield mark moving forward.
As a reminder, this is still a highly respective yield in the context of dividend payouts. Current rates on term deposits are less than 5%, with no potential for capital gains or reinvestment.
