Aussie beef shares bounce back from tariff lows

Global demand for Aussie beef surges as Trump's trade war plays out.

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A farmer pats a small beef cattle bovine on the head in a green field with trees in the background.

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Aussie beef stocks tumbled following Trump's tariffs announcements in early April.

The Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) share price lost about 15% of its value in the wake of the announcement, adding to previous declines.

In February, Elders shares were trading for about $7.56 before sinking to around $5.80 in April, a 23% decline.

And the Australian Agricultural Company Ltd (ASX: AAC) share price went from $1.57 in mid-March to bottom out at $1.36 following the tariffs announcement.

That represents a drop of about 13% over a month.

But things are starting to turn around for Aussie beef exporters.

Aussie beef exports surge

Beef exports overall came in at 127,172 tonnes last month, according to Meat and Livestock Australia.

That represents a 21% higher year-on-year increase and a record export volume for April.

North America remained the largest market, with exports to the United States rising 37% over the prior corresponding period to 37,213 tonnes.

And exports to Canada were up 40% to 3,322 tonnes.  

While North America remains the largest market for Aussie beef, China is fast closing the gap.

In December last year, amid improving relations between China and Australia, China removed the final impediments impacting Australia's beef exports to the country.

As a result, exports to China surged, and that trend continues with April's exports rising 62%.

Did Trump score an own goal?

Trump imposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods of 145%, which prompted a retaliation from China.

Beijing responded with taxes on US goods of 125%.

Tensions have since eased, and tariffs have been significantly reduced.

But for US beef exporters, the damage may have already been done.

As recent figures show, Australia's beef exports have surged amid reports of US beef exports to China slowing significantly.

And Aussie beef shares have been climbing as the trade war plays out.

The Australian Agricultural Company share price is back up to $1.51.

As such, the Australian Agricultural Company share price is up about 10% from its slump in the aftermath of Trump's tariffs announcements.

And the Elders share price is up about 12% from its April lows.

Will Aussie beef shares continue to climb?

With beef prices expected to increase and exports on track to achieve another record in 2025, according to Meat and Livestock Australia, Aussie beef shares look well placed to capitalise.

And, while the key US export market could come under pressure, increased demand in other markets, particularly China, will more than make up for any US shortfalls.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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