The ASX financial stock GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) has a lot of potential, according to one leading broker. Macquarie thinks the business could rise almost 30% from where it is today.
For those that don't know, GQG is a funds management business that specialises in share strategies across global, global excluding US, US, and emerging markets, according to Macquarie. The broker said GQG follows a quality investment strategy where the investment team look for companies that show earnings quality (with consistency and predictability), experienced management teams, barriers to entry, and other competitive differentiators.
Macquarie currently has an outperform rating on the business, which suggests it's a buy.
Let's have a look at why Macquarie thinks that.
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Solid net inflows
Macquarie noted that in April 2025, the ASX financial stock experienced net inflows of $1.4 billion, bringing the net inflows for the first four months of 2025 to $6 billion. The broker is forecasting net inflows of around $7.5 billion for the six months to June 2025.
The net inflows of $1.4 billion in April compare to the monthly average for the previous 12 months of $1.7 billion. Net inflows were 14.1% of opening funds under management (FUM) on a rolling 12-month basis, according to Macquarie.
The fund manager's FUM increased by 1% month over month to $163.6 billion. The broker noted that GQG's international shares strategy saw FUM rise to $65.4 billion, which was a rise of 2.7% month over month. This is the segment with the largest FUM and saw the biggest monthly increase.
After Macquarie saw this update, it decided to increase its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for GQG for FY25, FY26, and FY27 by 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, respectively, to reflect changes in flows, performance, and market movements.
Cheap valuation for the ASX financial stock
When the GQG share price was $2.16, Macquarie said the business was trading at a forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 9x, so the valuation "remains attractive".
Macquarie has a price target of $2.90 on GQG shares, which is based on a P/E ratio of around 11 for the business.
A price target is where Macquarie thinks the share price will be trading in 12 months from the time of the investment call. Therefore, Macquarie suggests that GQG shares could rise by 28% from where they are today. On top of that, there's the dividend, which Macquarie is forecasting to be 14.7 cents per share in FY25.
