Broker watch: Are Woolworths shares a buy?

Do analysts think this supermarket giant would be a good pick for investors? Let's find out.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares were in the spotlight on Thursday when the retail giant released its quarterly update.

The company's shares ended the session around 1.5% higher at $31.94 after investors responded positively to the release.

This latest gain means that the supermarket operator's shares are now up 8% since this time last month.

Does this mean they have peaked or can they keep rising? Let's find out what analysts are saying.

A customer and shopper at the checkout of a supermarket.

Image source: Getty Images

Are Woolworths shares a buy?

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts were pleased with the company's performance during the third quarter. They said:

WOW reported largely in-line 3Q25 sales results, with AU Foods total sales +3.6%, above ABS Supermarket retail sales +1.7% Jan/Feb 2025 and largely in-line with key competitor COL Foods. We deem the key sales drivers as high quality, and implies positively on in-quarter AU Foods profitability with a return to positive store originated sales growth, growth in eComm pick-up (higher margin vs delivery) and strong Cartology growth.

The good news is that Goldman believes that this bodes well for its performance in FY 2026 and is forecasting strong earnings growth next year. It adds:

Looking into FY26, we continue to expect strong recovery in both group sales +4% and group EBIT +20%, supported by AU Foods sales +4.7% and EBIT +15% as WOW recovers lost share in 1H26 and the elimination of one-off costs (1H25 ~A$95mn EBIT from industrial action and 2H25 ~A$20-25mn from QLD stock-losses). We retain our drop-through of ~A$150mn of the ~A$400mn productivity program to AU Foods EBIT. We are also seeing green shoots of NZ turnaround and expect Big W 2H26 profit to reduce EBIT loss vs 2H25 due to reduced seasonal stock-clearance, though Big W remains a broader strategic question.

In light of the above, Goldman Sachs has retained its buy rating with a slightly improved price target of $36.50.

Based on its current share price of $31.94, this implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividend yields of 2.6% in FY 2025 and then 3.4% in FY 2026.

What else is being said?

Elsewhere, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) remains positive on Woolworths shares. This morning, it has retained its outperform rating with a $33.60 price target. It said:

Retain Outperform. We expect earnings to bottom in FY25E, with significant growth in FY26E as the group cycles a disrupted year, and cost savings to benefit FY27E+.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Three women laughing and enjoying their gambling winnings while sitting at a poker machine.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

How high does Macquarie think this gaming stock will go?

Profit is expected to build throughout the year.

Read more »

Stressed shopper holding shopping bags.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

3 brokers weigh in on how high Premier Investments shares could go

A strategic reset of the business could have it primed for growth.

Read more »

Image of a shopping centre.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

A $500 million deal just dropped for Woolworths. Here's what investors need to know

Woolworths sells $500 million in shopping centres to unlock capital.

Read more »

A wine technician in overalls holds a glass of red wine up to the light and studies it.
52-Week Lows

Treasury Wine shares just tumbled to 14-year lows. Screaming bargain or falling knife?

Trading at 14-year lows, are Treasury Wine shares poised for a rebound?

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

A rare buying opportunity for this ASX 200 stock as it rebounds from a historic low

Analysts are expecting big things from this beaten-down ASX 200 stock.

Read more »

One girl leapfrogs over her friend's back.
Growth Shares

This dirt cheap ASX retail stock is tipped to double in value

Better execution and easing pressures could spark a powerful rebound.

Read more »

Stressed shopper holding shopping bags.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Which ASX retail stock could soar more than 100% if this broker is right?

A solid first half result has set this business up to win.

Read more »

A man on a phone call points his finger, indicating a halt in trading on the ASX share market.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Trading halt, delayed results, and a capital raise: Why this ASX retail stock is under pressure

KMD shares fall after an earnings delay and equity raise announcement.

Read more »