What does Macquarie think Liontown Resources shares are worth?

Let's see if analysts think that this lithium miner is in the buy zone or best avoided.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are under pressure again on Monday.

In afternoon trade, the lithium miner's shares are down 1.5% to 55.7 cents.

This means that its shares are now down over 50% since this time last year.

Is this a buying opportunity? Let's see what analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are saying about its shares.

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.

Image source: Getty Images

Are Liontown shares undervalued?

According to a note out of Macquarie, its analysts see value in Liontown's shares at current levels. But not enough to recommend them as a buy.

Macquarie has responded to the company's quarterly update by retaining its neutral rating and 65 cents price target.

Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 17% for investors from current levels.

The broker was pleased with its performance during the third quarter, with production, sales, and costs better than expected. It said:

Spodumene concentrate production/sales of 95.7kt/93.9kt was a 8%/4% beat vs. VA driven by stronger than expected recoveries of 64% (8% beat vs. VA). AISC of A$1,081/t was also a 8% beat vs. VA on lower sustaining capital (general & mine development) during the 3Q which is expected to be caught up in the 4Q

Commenting on its recommendation, Macquarie said:

Maintain Neutral: LTR has now delivered two solid quarters of operational performance in a row with the uptick in recoveries particularly encouraging, and is doing well in a challenging lithium market, but it needs an uptick in spodumene prices to +US$900/t to generate meaningful FCF moving forward.

Is anyone more bullish?

Bell Potter is more positive on Liontown and its shares. In fact, it thinks they could offer huge returns for investors with a high tolerance for risk.

A note released this morning reveals that its analysts have retained their speculative buy rating and 90 cents price target on its shares. This suggests that its shares could rise 62% over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter was also pleased with the company's performance during the quarter. It said:

LTR reported Q3 FY25 spodumene concentrate production of 96kt and sales of 94kt (BP est. 89kt), supporting revenues of $104m (BP est. $104m) and a closing cash position of $173m (prior quarter $193m). Kathleen Valley's unit operating costs were US$512/dmt SC6e (BP est. US$562/dmt) and All-In Sustaining Costs US$678/dmt. The average received price was US$815/t SC6e (prior quarter $806/t) compared with indices averaging around US$844/t. LTR delivered improvements across processing plant availability, throughput and recoveries, despite marginally lower ore feed grades.

Outside this, it continues to see the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project as a highly strategic asset. It concludes:

LTR's 100% owned Kathleen Valley lithium project remains highly strategic in terms of scale, long project life and location in a tier-one mining jurisdiction. LTR has offtake contracts with top-tier EV and battery OEMs. Under our modelled assumptions, we expect that LTR is fully funded to free cash flow. LTR is an asset development company; our Speculative risk rating recognises this higher level of risk.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A smiling woman holds a Facebook like sign above her head.
Materials Shares

Why this ASX mining stock could be a strong buy after major milestone

Bell Potter is recommending this stock to clients.

Read more »

A hand holding a lump of rare earths material against a blue sky.
Materials Shares

This ASX critical minerals company could more than double in value: Broker

An important US government milestone was achieved this week.

Read more »

A group of people gathered around a laptop computer with various expressions of interest, concern and surprise on their faces as they review the payouts from ASX dividend stocks. All are wearing glasses.
Resources Shares

Buy, hold, or sell? South32, Capstone Copper, and BHP shares

Let's see what the experts think.

Read more »

A man wearing a suit holds his arms aloft, attached to a large lithium battery with green charging symbols on it.
Materials Shares

PLS shares jump 320% in 12 months: Buy, sell or hold?

The lithium miner has flown from strength to strength over the past year.

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Materials Shares

Morgans just placed buy ratings on these ASX materials stocks

These two stocks could be worth adding to your portfolio according to Morgans.

Read more »

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Materials Shares

Why Lynas could be one of the ASX's biggest winners again today

Lynas is gaining strategic value as rare earths tensions rise.

Read more »

Two workers on site discuss the next stage of this civil engineering job.
Materials Shares

Is takeover tension sending this ASX steel stock soaring?

Strong fundamentals and takeover speculation have pushed this share up 42%.

Read more »

Smiling worker in metal landfill.
Materials Shares

Another US milestone, another share price drop: What's going on with this ASX stock?

Metallium hits another US milestone, but shares slip again on Tuesday.

Read more »