Owners of Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares will be hoping their ASX mining stock is capable of producing strong profits in the coming years, regardless of what happens with the global economy and US tariffs.
The miner is indirectly exposed to the trade war between the US and China because it is reliant on the Asian superpower to buy enormous quantities of commodities, particularly iron ore.
Resource prices are heavily influenced by supply and demand. Therefore, a reduction in demand from China could significantly impact Rio Tinto's profit. Of course, the US and China could come to an agreement that could allay mining investor concerns.
Let's have a look at what the broker UBS thinks Rio Tinto's earnings could look like in the next few years. Of course, there's no guarantee the broker's predictions will be extremely close to reality – conditions could change in the coming years. Whatever happens, it could impact Rio Tinto shares positively or negatively.
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This year, FY25
After seeing Rio Tinto's recent quarterly update for the three months to March 2025, UBS noted that Rio Tinto's Pilbara (iron ore) guidance was trimmed to the "lower end" of the guidance range of 323mt to 338mt because of weather disruption. The iron ore quality "remains poor", which is impacting the price Rio Tinto is selling its resources at.
The broker also noted that the copper production at the Mongolian project, Oyu Tolgoi, was "soft" in the first quarter because of maintenance, but is expected to pick up in the second half of 2025.
UBS also noted Rio Tinto reassured investors that the large, new iron ore project called Simandou in Africa is proceeding "at an impressive pace" and is on track for the first production at the mine gate at the end of 2025. Its other projects are also reportedly on schedule and budget.
The broker UBS projects that Rio Tinto could generate US$51.1 billion in revenue and US$10.3 billion in net profit after tax (NPAT) in FY25. Following the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, this year's net debt could also jump to approximately US$13.6 billion by the end of FY25.
Next year, FY26
The 2026 financial year and onwards could be heavily impacted by what happens with US tariffs and how China responds. Financial stimulus by the Asian powerhouse would be a positive for Rio Tinto, in my view.
UBS is currently predicting that Rio Tinto's earnings could improve in FY26. Revenue could rise to US$54.3 billion, and net profit could climb by 4.7% to US$10.7 billion. Ongoing profit growth could be supportive for Rio Tinto shares.
FY27
FY27 could see a larger improvement in the financial picture for the ASX mining share.
The broker predicts that Rio Tinto's revenue will rise to US$59.9 billion and its net profit will increase by 14.8% to US$12.3 billion.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could be an even better year for the miner, assuming the forecasts become reality.
FY28 could see revenue reach US$65.9 billion, and the net profit could climb a further 11.25% to US$13.7 billion.
FY29
The last year of this series of projections is the most rosy, which could help Rio Tinto shares. Revenue could climb to US$70.6 billion, and net profit could increase 11% to US$15.3 billion.
This year could also see the company's net debt reduce to under US$10 billion for the first time during these projections. Net debt is projected to fall to US$7.6 billion in FY29, down from US$11.4 billion in FY28.
