The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price is down approximately 35% in the past year, and down 16.5% since 1 April 2025, as the chart below shows. Investors hunting for a bargain may be sniffing around the ASX oil and gas share.
Woodside is one of the largest energy businesses in the Asia Pacific region, so the decline of energy prices is problematic for the company's current profitability.
No-one can know for sure what's going to happen next with the US' tariffs. That will be up to what President Trump. But, with the company's share price down heavily amid uncertainty, investors may be wondering if it's time to buy. After all, one of the most famous pieces of investment wisdom is "buy low". Woodside shares are trading at a much lower price.
Let's have a look at what broker UBS thinks of the situation.
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Expert view on energy prices
Last week, UBS decided to reduce its oil price forecast again because of two key negative risks materialising.
It noted OPEC+ (a group of oil-producing countries) is accelerating further increases, and that the world is likely to see "weaker global oil demand from slowing global growth/trade tensions."
UBS decided to reduce its Brent oil forecast by $6 per barrel in 2025 to $66 per barrel. The broker also reduced its projection by $7 per barrel in 2026 to $65 per barrel and cut the 2027 projection by $3 per barrel to $70 per barrel.
This obviously is a headwind for Woodside's profit.
The broker didn't change its long-term price forecast of $75 per barrel from 2028 onwards.
UBS noted last week that the Brent oil price had dropped to the low-mid $60s since the start of April. While the broker is expecting the price to be around this level for the rest of the year, it expects "significant volatility given the uncertainty around both trade tensions/oil demand and OPEC+".
With that in mind, UBS is expecting Brent to trade in a wider range of between $50 to $75 per barrel in the near-term.
The broker is expecting global oil to move into a surplus of 0.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.8 million barrels per day in 2026.
UBS concluded:
Initial estimates from UBS economists suggested a 50bps impact on global GDP growth from Trump tariffs, however despite the tariff pause, we recognise the landscape remains fluid and further escalation of trade tensions (between the US and China in particular) could still see larger impacts to global growth.
Is this the right time to invest in Woodside shares?
UBS said that Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) is its preferred pick in the energy space, followed by Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT).
The broker said that Woodside is the "least preferred" in the sector. UBS has a neutral rating on the business, with a price target of $23.50. A price target is where the broker thinks the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.
UBS' price target on Woodside suggests a possible rise of around 20% from where it is today. However, the broker said Santos shares were trading at a discount of more than 30% to US peers.
