SpaceX has been one of the highest-profile listings of 2026.
But excitement and a good entry price are not always the same thing.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares closed at US$148.15 on Monday.
That's above the US$135 IPO price, although the stock has already been on a wild ride since listing in June.
It briefly traded as high as US$225.64 just days after its debut.
Investors who chased the early surge are already sitting on a sizeable loss.
And while the 34% pullback makes SpaceX look cheaper, that doesn't necessarily mean it's good value.
Yes, I would love to own SpaceX shares at some point.
I just wouldn't buy them around current levels.
Image source: Getty Images
Why I want to own SpaceX
There is a lot I like about the business.
SpaceX has built a position that would be extremely difficult for another company to copy.
Its launch business is already enormous, and Starlink continues to add customers.
Starship could also dramatically reduce the cost of putting satellites and other payloads into orbit if the program works as planned.
The growth numbers are pretty impressive, too.
Second-quarter revenue jumped 92% to US$7.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to US$3.5 billion.
Starlink now has around 12 million subscribers, and SpaceX is also spending heavily on AI infrastructure alongside its space and connectivity businesses.
Evidently, this will give the company several ways to grow over the next decade.
So what's stopping me?
The price.
At around US$148 per share, SpaceX has a market cap at roughly US$2 trillion.
That's a huge valuation, especially for a company that still reported a US$541 million net loss in the second quarter.
It's spending heavily as well.
Capital expenditure reached US$18.4 billion during the quarter, with US$15.8 billion going towards AI infrastructure.
Of course, SpaceX could eventually grow into that valuation.
Interestingly, Wall Street thinks there's more upside, with the average analyst price target sitting around US$227.
But at the current price, I think investors are already paying for a lot of future growth.
Where would I buy?
For me, things would get much more interesting below US$90.
That would mean a fall of roughly 39% from yesterday's closing price and put the shares well below their US$135 IPO price.
Would SpaceX suddenly be cheap at US$90? Probably not.
But I'd be much more comfortable starting a position around that level.
At that price, I'd have a lot more room for things to go wrong.
SpaceX is a company I genuinely want in my portfolio.
I'm just happy to miss some upside if the alternative is paying too much.
