The historic run higher in the gold price looks to have been tarnished by United States President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariff campaign.
In the first three months of 2025, prior to the implementation of the Trump tariffs, the gold price surged by 19%, a blistering pace not witnessed since the September quarter of 1986.
The stars were well and truly aligned for investors in the yellow metal – and ASX gold stocks – in the first quarter of the year.
To see what I mean, just take a look at the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD). In the three months to 31 March, the All Ords Gold Index gained a whopping 29.2%.
As for some of Australia's top gold stocks, the Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price gained 18.6% in Q1 while Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares rocketed 46.9%.
So, what's been sending the gold price flying higher prior to the Trump tariff rollout?
What's been going right for the gold price?
First, interest rates across much of the world have been coming down. And bullion, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.
Second, central banks have continued to be strong net buyers of gold.
Third, bullion has benefited greatly from its haven status as retail and institutional investors alike are seeking safer investments amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty.
What's happened since the Trump tariff rollout?
The gold price has continued to receive support from the three factors mentioned above.
However, as witnessed during previous sharp market corrections, many investors have been selling gold to cover other obligations amid mounting stock market losses and to ensure they have enough liquidity.
As we're seeing with the broader market rebound today (the ASX 200 is up 1.6%), gold edged up 0.4% overnight to US$2,996 per ounce. However, that's still down 4.4% from the US$3,134 per ounce on Friday.
Bullion lost 3% on the day as global stock markets crashed following Trump's tariff announcement and China's strong retaliatory response.
So, is this an end to gold's historic bull run?
What can ASX investors expect from the gold price now?
Commenting on the recent moves in the gold price, Capital.com's financial market analyst Kyle Rodda noted that bullion's fundamentals remain "really good".
According to Rodda (quoted by Reuters):
We've seen some forced selling coming through the market, a lot of liquidation to cover losses in other assets. The fundamentals are really good, but when you get this kind of panic taking hold, irrationality can take over and markets become much less efficient.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed to strong central bank demand as likely supporting further upside for the yellow metal and, by connection, ASX gold stocks.
Hansen said:
Once the dust settles, the continued demand from central banks will act as a price stabilising buffer that will give other investor types the confidence to buy gold as part of an overall reallocation of funds, and safe haven focus.
"Central banks are evidently still keen on adding gold to their reserves, which has been underpinning support for the precious metals," KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer added on the outlook for the gold price.
Indeed, the World Gold Council's latest February report noted that "central banks' appetite for gold continues to be robust", with central bank gold reserves up by 24 tonnes.
According to the report:
Demand for gold from central bankers continues, with data available for February showing reported global central bank gold reserves rising by 24t. Thus far, Poland, China, Turkey and the Czech Republic have led gold demand from emerging market central banks.
