S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium share Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) is having a tough run of it today.
Boss Energy shares closed yesterday trading for $2.30. In afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are swapping hands for $2.20 apiece, down 4.3%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.1% at this same time as jittery investors digest the latest Trump tariff news.
With today's losses factored in, the ASX 200 uranium share is down 55% over the past 12 months.
Investors have been selling the stock amid a big retrace in uranium prices. The radioactive metal used to power nuclear plants is currently trading for around US$64 per pound. That's down 40% from last year's highs.
And with traders apparently expecting more pain in uranium markets, Boss Energy topped the list of most shorted ASX stocks again this week, with short interest increasing to 24.4%.
But if the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have it right, those short sellers may want to consider exiting their borrowed positions and buying the ASX 200 uranium share to hold onto instead.
ASX 200 uranium share could double in a year
In a 28 March research report, Macquarie analysts detailed their site tour of Boss Energy's Honeymoon uranium project, located in South Australia.
The analysts noted that, "The project is continuing to perform strongly."
The ASX 200 uranium share is the 100% owner of Honeymoon, an in-situ recovery (ISR) uranium mine.
Boss acquired the project in 2015 and has been developing a larger processing facility utilising ion-exchange (IX) technology to improve the technical and financial feasibility of the project.
Boss produced its first drum of U3O8 in April 2024. Over the half-year to 31 December (H1 FY 2025), the miner drummed 226,000 pounds of U3O8. The ASX 200 uranium share is continuing to ramp up Honeymoon towards nameplate capacity of 2.45 million pounds of U3O8 per year.
Citing some key takeaways from their Honeymoon tour, Macquarie's analysts said that IX columns 1 & 2 are running at capacity. And "over the coming June quarter IX column 3 should be running at closer to full capacity".
"We now expect BOE can beat FY 2025 guidance (850,000 pounds); we raise our estimate for drummed U3O8 production to 892,00 pounds," they said.
They added that, "Honeymoon is ramping up ahead of plan, [with the] modified process performing as expected."
The analysts also noted that the ASX 200 uranium share "is soon sending its COO & Chief Geologist to the USA to spend time with [North American uranium company] Encore in better understanding key issues around its 30% interest in Alta Mesa & Mestena Grande".
Adding it all up, Macquarie has an outperform rating on Boss Energy shares with a $4.50 target price.
That represents a potential upside of 105% from current levels.
Short sellers, take note.
