S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stocks may have just gotten an improved outlook from an unlikely source.
Namely, United States President Donald Trump.
I say he's an unlikely source to boost ASX 200 energy stocks because Trump has made it clear he would like lower oil and gas prices.
That goal would help decrease inflation in the world's top economy. And it would increase the competitiveness of US manufacturing as Trump seeks to bring factories back to the homeland.
Along with pushing for more domestic drilling and production ("Drill baby, drill!"), Trump successfully encouraged OPEC+ to begin lifting its production cuts. And last month, it looked like he was ready to engineer a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could put more Russian oil back into global markets.
Adding in sluggish demand growth over the past 12 months, ASX 200 energy stocks have come under pressure as the Brent crude oil price tumbled from US$87.42 per barrel a year ago to recent lows of US$69.30 per barrel on 5 March.
But that downtrend has since reversed.
Casting doubt on a range of bearish analyst forecasts of US$60 per barrel oil in the second half of 2025, Brent crude ticked up another 1.5% overnight to trade for US$74.74 per barrel today.
That's seen investors getting back into the beaten-down ASX 200 energy stocks.
Here's how the big four oil and gas stocks are faring currently on Tuesday:
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are up 0.8%
- Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are up 0.8%
- Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares are up 0.5%
- Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares are up 2.2%
So, where does Trump fit into all this?
ASX 200 energy stocks catching tailwinds
The oil price, and by connection ASX 200 energy stocks, could remain well above recent levels amid deteriorating prospects for a rapid end to the war in Ukraine and increasing hostilities between the US and Iran.
Starting with Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer after the US and Saudi Arabia, the bromance between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin looks to be on edge. That came after Putin took a swipe at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and suggested a change in leadership was in order.
That didn't sit well with the US president.
And oil prices surged after Trump said (quoted by NBC News):
If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault, which it might not be, but if I think it was Russia's fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia…
That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can't do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.
ASX 200 energy stocks could also be eyeing higher oil prices if US negotiations on Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions continue to devolve.
And Trump didn't pull any punches in his threats to the oil-rich nation.
"If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before," he warned Iran.
While we can only sit back and hope for a peaceful outcome on both fronts, as tricky negotiations continue, global oil prices may well remain above recent consensus expectations.
