After a rough second half of 2024, S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) tech stock Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) has come roaring back in 2025.
Despite slipping 2.4% in intraday trade today to $10.26, shares in the network-as-a-service solutions provider are up an impressive 38.3% since the opening bell sounded on 2 January.
This performance is even more notable if you take into account that the ASX 200 is down 3.0% year to date.
But if you don't own shares in the ASX 200 tech stock yet, it may not be too late to grab some outsized gains in the year ahead. That's according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).
ASX 200 tech stock on the growth path
In Macquarie's March small and mid-cap ASX stocks best picks list, analyst Andrew Gillies gives Megaport shares an outperform rating. Macquarie has a $14.30 price target on the ASX 200 tech stock. That represents a potential upside of 39.4% from current levels.
When Megaport announced its half-year results on 20 February, CEO Michael Reid noted, "During H1 FY25 we achieved top-line revenue growth across all regions while making ongoing investments to drive sustainable, long-term growth."
And with the company's net revenue retention (NRR) increasing by 1% since last June to 107%, Macquarie's Gillies said this validates those ongoing investments.
"NRR shows early signs of stabilisation and new logo growth acceleration is a strong positive signal," Gillies said. "Although more evidence of longer-term sustained NRR improvement is required, we view the tightening of FY25 guidance range as a positive and give credit to management's strategy and recent investments."
At its half-year results, the ASX 200 tech stock amended its FY 2025 revenue guidance to be in the range of $216 million to $222 million, from the prior $214 million to $222 million. That equates to year-on-year revenue growth of 11% to 14%.
An extensive product roadmap
Macquarie is also bullish on the ASX 200 tech stock for its "extensive product roadmap" and the ability to roll these new products out rapidly.
According to Gillies:
Most notably, the new compute platform significantly increases MP1's flexibility to roll out future new products on a global scale and at limited incremental capital. 100G cloud routers and NAT gateway are products that have been recently released on the platform and could positively impact the stock in the near term.
Gillies also believes that Megaport's sales guidance is "conservative".
Though he cautioned that "NRR recovery will take time, and reinvestment for growth will dampen [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] EBITDA upside in FY25/26".
