Why is Flight Centre down 20% in under a month?

Investors have been hitting the sell button this month. Let's find out why.

| More on:
Couple at an airport waiting for their flight.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It has been a tough time for owners of Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares.

The travel agent giant's shares have lost 20% of their value in under a month.

This means that they are now down by approximately a third since this time last year.

Why are Flight Centre shares being sold off?

There are a number of reasons why the company's shares have fallen heavily in recent weeks.

One of those is broad market weakness, which has caused most ASX shares to drop into the red.

In addition, recent updates from US airline operators have shaken confidence in the travel market, putting further pressure on Flight Centre's shares.

But the main drag has been the company's half year results release at the end of last month. Investors were quick to hit the sell button after the company fell short of the market's expectations.

In fact, the selling has been so strong that the Australian stock exchange recently sent the company an ASX Aware Letter.

What was asked?

The stock exchange operator asked the company the following:

Does FLT consider that any measure of its statutory or underlying earnings for the half year ended 31 December 2024 as disclosed in the Results Announcements ('Earnings Information') differed materially from the market's expectations, having regard to the following three base indicators (in decreasing order of relevance and reliability).

Flight Centre acknowledged that its profits fell short of expectations. However, it advised that it decided against providing a prior update on its earnings as the variance between its performance and expectations did not warrant one. It responded:

FLT does not consider that any measure of its statutory or underlying earnings for FY25 1H differs materially from the adjusted half-year consensus forecast of sell-side analysts. FLT considers the key metric to assess FLT's performance is underlying PBT. FLT's actual reported underlying PBT for FY25 H1 was $116.8 million which is 6.8% below the adjusted half-year consensus. This falls within the 15% guideline recommended by ASX.

Should you invest?

The team at Morgans is likely to see this weakness as a buying opportunity. Following its results release, the broker retained its add rating with a price target of $19.80. This implies potential upside of approximately 40% for investors over the next 12 months.

One of Flight Centre's executives appears to believe the selling has been overdone and has been buying shares on-market this month, which could be a good sign.

A change of director's interests notice reveals that Gary Smith bought 3,000 shares on-market on 13 March at an average $13.88 per share. This represents a total consideration of $41,640.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

A jet plane takes off.
Travel Shares

Why this ASX travel share is flying high

If travel demand holds up, brokers think there's more to come.

Read more »

Smiling woman looking through a plane window.
Travel Shares

Prediction: In 12 months the Qantas share price and dividend could turn $10,000 into…

I think the combination of earnings momentum and income could still deliver solid returns over the next year.

Read more »

A woman looks up at a plane flying in the sky with arms outstretched as the Flight Centre share price surges
Travel Shares

3 reasons I would buy Qantas shares in February

Qantas has rebuilt profitability and flexibility faster than many expected.

Read more »

A woman stands on a runway with her arms outstretched in excitement with a plane in the air having taken off.
Travel Shares

Which airline could deliver almost 25% returns? See what the analysts say

Jarden has run the ruler over the aviation sector and likes what it sees.

Read more »

A smiling woman in a hat holding a ticket takes selfie inside a Qantas plane next to the window.
Travel Shares

$10,000 invested in Qantas shares two years ago is now worth…

Atop share price gains, 2025 also saw the return of the Qantas dividend.

Read more »

Happy couple looking at a phone and waiting for their flight at an airport.
Travel Shares

Why I would buy Qantas shares in 2026

Qantas is no longer a turnaround story.

Read more »

Smiling woman looking through a plane window.
Travel Shares

Is this the best ASX 200 share to buy today?

This business has a lot of potential, according to many experts.

Read more »

A woman on holiday stands with her arms outstretched joyously in an aeroplane cabin.
Travel Shares

How Qantas shares could catch a welcome uplift in 2026

I think now could be an opportune time to buy Qantas shares. Here’s why.

Read more »