The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price has struggled over the past year, underscored by weak lithium prices under pressure and operational setbacks.
Shares in the lithium miner hit all-time highs of $1.67 in 2022 but currently trade at around 8.5 cents apiece.
The stock has shown brief glimpses of recovery over this time. But ultimately, there's an enormous hurdle to cross to trade anywhere near those former levels.
What's in store for Core Lithium stock? Let's see what the experts think.
Why is Core Lithium stock under pressure?
Core Lithium was once part of the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO). However, as my colleague Bernd noted, the company saw itself removed from the list in September last year as part of the index's quarterly rebalance.
The index is constructed using a set of rules, one of which is market value, and others related to operations.
But the main driver behind the decline? Lithium prices. A global oversupply of the battery material has kept prices down, forcing the company to suspend mining at its flagship Finniss lithium project.
According to Trading Economics, lithium prices remain heavily depressed compared to former highs due to "persistent pressure from an oversupplied market."
As reported by The Australian Financial Review, Bank of America cut its lithium spodumene price outlook for 2025, forecasting a 25% drop in the battery metal to US$800 per tonne.
Spodumene, a mineral, contains high concentrations of lithium.
Despite the weak lithium market, Core Lithium had a busy year in 2024. The company welcomed a new CEO, Paul Brown, and started exploration activities beyond lithium.
In its December quarterly update, Core provided updates on uranium exploration at its Napperby project up in the Northern Territory. It also acquired a 9.8% stake in Charger Metals NL (ASX: CHR).
Despite this, investors have continued to push Core Lithium stock lower during the first months of 2025.
What's next for Core Lithium stock?
According to CommSec, the consensus of analyst estimates rates Core Lithium stock a sell.
Goldman Sachs has a hold rating on the stock and expects the company to be "unlikely to produce near-term, though stockpile sales may support a shifting focus to exploration."
The broker has an 8 cents per share price target on Core Lithium stock, leaving little room from the current share price.
One relief could be a rise in lithium prices. As my colleague James reported, analysts at Bell Potter reckon the market could swing into a supply deficit by 2026.
If that were the case, this could be positive for Aussie lithium miners. Time will tell if the lithium market starts to tick higher again.
Foolish takeaway
Trading at depressed prices compared to history, Core Lithium stock will need a combination of higher lithium prices, successful exploration, and improved costs to turn things around.
Brokers aren't bullish on the lithium miner despite mixed outlooks on the battery metal itself.
Shares are down more than 5% this year to date.
