The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price has been out of form again in 2024.
Unless there is a miraculous end of year surge, the lithium miner's shares are going to record a decline of over 65%.
But with a new year on the horizon, will 2025 be kinder to the company's shares and shareholders? Let's see what could lie ahead for Core Lithium.
Core Lithium share price outlook
With the company's shares at rock bottom, it wouldn't be hard for them to have a much-improved year in 2025.
But there are three major factors that are likely to have a say in how the Core Lithium share price performs.
The first is the lithium price. The price of the battery making ingredient has pulled back so much this year that Core Lithium was forced to suspend its mining activities at the Finniss operation to conserve cash.
Bell Potter believes that a lithium supply deficit is coming in just over a year in 2026. If that starts to look likely, then there's potential for lithium prices to start creeping higher as the year progresses.
Should this happen, it could bring the Finniss operation back to life and give its shares a major boost.
But that isn't the only way that it could happen. Core Lithium recently advised that restart studies remain on track for completion in the second half of FY 2025, with the Finniss operation maintained in a state of operational readiness.
Management revealed that the restart strategy is focusing on improving cost management, product quality, logistics, and sustainability, positioning the company for growth as market conditions evolve.
What else?
Another factor that could have an impact on the Core Lithium share price isn't related to lithium at all.
Instead, it is the company's quest to find gold at the Shoobridge Project. Drilling activities have been very promising so far and there's reason for optimism. Especially with the gold price near a record high.
The only hope is that Core Lithium isn't late to the party like it was with the lithium price.
What are brokers saying?
As things stand, brokers are sitting on the fence with this one.
For example, both Goldman Sachs and Macquarie have neutral ratings and 9 cents price targets on its shares. In respect to the former, the broker said:
CXO's ongoing production restart risk remains somewhat priced in vs. peers in at ~1.2x NAV or pricing ~US$1,200/t LT spodumene (peers ~0.8-1.0x NAV and ~US$1,100/t respectively), and ~25% of CXO's market cap is cash on hand (with no debt) potentially partially mitigating exposure to further near-term declines in lithium prices.
Fingers crossed 2025 will be a better year for shareholders.
