Following a strong performance in 2024 and a positive start to 2025, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares have gained 27% over the past 12 months.
That's more than twice the 11% gains posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over this same period.
The diversified financial stock also trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 2.8%.
With a solid year behind it, here are three reasons Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable forecasts more outperformance from Macquarie shares in 2025 (courtesy of The Bull).
Why Macquarie shares can keep on giving in 2025
Gable's first reason for being bullish on Macquarie shares for 2025 is the company's lengthy, proven track record of success.
He pointed to Macquarie's half year results covering the six months to 30 September.
Highlights from those results, released on 1 November, included a 14% year-on-year increase in net profit to $1.61 billion.
"However, this was 3% below consensus," Gable noted. "Also, analysts were expecting a brighter outlook than what management provided."
Which brings us to the second reason to consider adding Macquarie shares to your portfolio in 2025.
According to Gable, "From my experience, Macquarie tends to under promise and eventually over-deliver, which means soft share price reactions after results can lead to good buying opportunities."
Gable added:
We believe global economies will experience strong growth in 2025 to the benefit of Macquarie. We're also optimistic about the outlook for the commodities sector due to renewed stimulus in China. This should boost Macquarie's profitable commodities trading division.
And the third reason Gable is bullish on Macquarie stock relates to the old investor adage, 'The trend is your friend'.
"The Macquarie stock chart remains in a long-term uptrend," Gable said.
Indeed, barring the brief COVID-driven pullback in early 2020, Macquarie shares have broadly been in an uptrend since June 2012. (Shares have gained more than 800% since then, not including those dividend payouts.)
What else did Macquarie report in its half-year results?
Atop the 14% profit increase that Gable cited, Macquarie also reported a 3% year-on-year boost in assets under management to $916.8 billion. And the company's net operating income was up 4% to $8.22 billion.
Commenting on the outlook for Macquarie shares in early November, CEO Shemara Wikramanayake said:
Macquarie remains well-positioned to deliver superior performance in the medium term with its diverse business mix across annuity-style and markets-facing businesses; deep expertise across diverse sectors in major markets with structural growth tailwinds; patient adjacent growth across new products and new markets; ongoing investment in our operating platform; a strong and conservative balance sheet; and a proven risk management framework and culture.
