ASX 200 bank stocks have had a superb year, one of their best, in fact. The S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index (ASX: XBK), which tracks the sector's performance, is up more than 30% in 2024.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has been one of the standouts. It is set to finish 2024 firmly in the green, having climbed 22% this year.
Macquarie shares started the year trading at around $180 apiece, hit highs of $239 in late October, and have since settled at $224.23 at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, the bank paid $6.45 per share in dividends over the past year, a trailing yield of 2.9%, as I write.
But as we roll into 2025, can the ASX 200 bank stock extend its gains? Let's see what the experts think.
Not your typical ASX 200 bank stock
Unlike your 'traditional' banks, which focus on retail and wholesale banking, Macquarie has its tentacles wrapped around several highly lucrative markets.
These span from investment banking, asset management, and commodities trading. All are profitable endeavours at the right point in the cycle.
Because of this, the ASX 200 bank stock has access to emerging trends in areas like renewable energy, infrastructure, and data centres.
Its stake in the $24 billion sale of data centre operator AirTrunk to private equity firm Blackstone in September is a prime example of this.
These aren't your hallmark talking points when analysing banking stocks.
Furthermore, this diversified set of revenue streams gives Macquarie what I've dubbed "recession-resilient earnings."
And that's one point that stands out to me about Macquarie for 2025. In a world with "significant risks and uncertainties ahead", according to credit rating agency Fitch, I think this 'resilience' could be a beacon of stability.
The bank's growth record speaks for itself. According to data obtained from CommSec, Macquarie's average return on equity (ROE) since 2018 is 11.5%. ROE is a measure of business returns.
Net profits climbed by an average of 7% per year from FY18 to FY24, with dividends growing 4% per annum. This total growth is 11%, in line with the business ROE.
Meanwhile, the Macquarie stock price has compounded by approximately 14% per annum over this period, closely matching these results.
Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results.
But keep in mind that during this time, we have battled a 'trade war', a pandemic, high inflation, two US presidents, two new wars, and a sharp rise in interest rates, and the investment result still matched the business result for the ASX 200 bank stock.
Macquarie 2025 outlook – high growth?
Analysts are divided on what's in store for Macquarie moving forward. According to CommSec, the consensus of analyst estimates rates it a hold.
They are split across four buys, six hold ratings and two analysts recommending selling the stock.
But what they aren't divided on is the growth outlook. Consensus estimates project the ASX 200 bank stock to grow profits by 40% in FY25, forecasting $9.80 in earnings per share (EPS).
Dividends are projected to stay flat and then increase by about 6% the year after that to $7.20 apiece.
The growth outlook outpaces competing ASX banks ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), which are projected to grow EPS by 11% next year, according to CommSec.
UBS is one broker in the neutral camp, rating the ASX 200 bank stock a hold with a price target of $225.
The broker narrowed its forecasts after Macquarie's H1 FY25 earnings result and projects EPS of $9.66.
On the flip side, Ord Minnett is in the bullish camp, rating the ASX 200 bank stock a buy with an increased $245 price target in November. This is despite reducing profit forecasts by 7% after the first-half result.
As my colleague James cites in his article published on November 21, Ord Minnett retained the buy rating, among other factors, due to "the group's market leverage and improving transaction activity."
The broker notes that it sees "significant opportunities" in areas like renewables and data centres for the ASX 200 bank stock, which "align with mega-trends and offer substantial medium-term potential".
I agree with Ord's comments and think Macquarie is among the best-placed ASX banking stocks for 2025.
Foolish takeaway
Macquarie is one ASX 200 bank stock that could stand out in 2025. Analysts are forecasting a year of profit growth, thanks to its exposure to areas like green energy and data centres.
Time will tell if Macquarie can capitalise on all these moving parts. But, as Michael Jackson said, "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take", so I think the bank is well positioned next year.
In the last 12 months, Macquarie shares have outperformed the broader market by 13%.
