ASX uranium shares have been a mixed bag so far in 2024, underperforming the broad market despite some bright spots early in the year.
The price of uranium itself has also been volatile, recently hitting yearly lows of US$76.50 per pound, down from US$105 per pound in January.
The metal, used as a primary fuel for nuclear power plants, now trades at US$77 per pound.
With global nuclear energy demand climbing and uranium prices potentially stabilising, what's in store for the sector next year? Let's take a look.
Is there a uranium revival?
The uranium sector has several tailwinds behind it, but you wouldn't know this by looking at the price of the nuclear metal.
One key potential driver is a renewed global push for nuclear energy to meet growing electricity needs sustainably.
The World Nuclear Association forecasts that nuclear power capacity must double by 2040 to align with global energy goals.
Coupled with constrained supply, this demand outlook has led Bank of America to predict uranium prices will hit US$120 per pound by 2025, climbing to US$140 by 2027.
Meanwhile, the Department of Industry Science and Resources projects potential shortages to have a positive impact on price. This could also impact ASX uranium shares.
After years of deferrals of uranium projects, there is a growing prospect that supply shortfalls could emerge as existing mines gradually deplete during the second half of the outlook period.
Uranium mines typically take a long time to obtain approvals, potentially drawing out supply shortages over the longer term and creating a baseline for structurally higher prices in the late 2020s.
The shortfall could lead to prices spiking significantly above forecast levels…
Meanwhile, according to Money Management, global uranium production has been "consistently below global nuclear reactor demand since 1991".
"In 2024, production is expected to match only 89% of global reactor needs – once again missing market demand", it adds, cementing the view on a potential shortage.
Experts back ASX uranium stocks for 2025
Closer to home, some ASX uranium stocks have recently been rated highly by brokers and fundies.
Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), for example, owns the Honeymoon Uranium Project in South Australia.
Tribeca Investment Partners rates Boss as its top uranium pick. Tribeca highlights the company's valuation, noting it trades at just 0.5x its net asset value (NAV) despite producing uranium from two operational mines.
Citi also recently rated Boss Energy a buy, citing its fundamentals and ability to meet rising demand for nuclear fuel.
Similarly, Blackwattle Investment Partners has doubled down on Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN), calling it well-positioned to address the sector's chronic undersupply.
Meanwhile, Bell Potter also sees upside for Paladin Energy shares, predicting improved production and earnings growth next year.
Foolish takeout
Experts appear to believe that ASX uranium shares are well-positioned for 2025, based on the growing demand for nuclear fuel.
But there's no saying for certain whether uranium prices or ASX uranium stocks will catch a bid next year.
Ultimately, time will tell what trends eventuate in the global energy markets.
