Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares are in the green in early afternoon trade on Monday.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) diversified financial stock closed on Friday trading for $231.57. In earlier trade today, shares were swapping hands for $235.00 each, up 1.5%. They've given back some of those gains since then, trading for $232.00 at the time of writing, up 0.2%.
As you can see on the chart below, it's been a very good year for Macquarie shares, up more than 40% over the 12 months. That's close to twice the 21% one-year gains posted by the ASX 200.
And this figure doesn't include the $6.45 in partly franked dividends the company has paid over 12 months. At the current share price, the ASX 200 stock trades at a 2.8% trailing dividend yield.
With these figures in mind, here's why Baker Young's Toby Grimm forecasts more upside ahead (courtesy of The Bull) for the stock.
Image source: Getty Images
United States' elections could buoy Macquarie shares
"First half results in fiscal year 2025 were marginally disappointing with net profit after tax of $1.612 billion declining 23% on the second half of fiscal year 2024," said Grimm, who has a buy rating on the financial stock.
Explaining his bullishness on Macquarie shares, Grimm said:
We believe recent political developments in the US will promote higher asset transaction volumes alongside a steepening yield curve and stronger US dollar, which are all fundamentally positive for this investment bank.
We see upside to the conservative outlook emerging into calendar year 2025.
What's been happening with the ASX 200 financial stock?
The last price-sensitive news likely to have an impact on Macquarie shares came on 1 November, when the company released its half-year results (H1 FY 2025).
As Baker & Young's Grimm mentioned, those results weren't as strong as some investors had been hoping, particularly the 23% slide in NPAT compared to the prior half-year results. However, it's worth noting that NPAT increased by 14% year on year (from H1 FY 2024).
Other core financial metrics included a 3% year on year increase in assets under management to $916.8 billion and net operating income of $8.22 billion, up 4% from H1 FY 2024.
Atop the partly franked interim dividend of $2.60 per share, which will be paid on 17 December, management also announced an on-market share buyback extension of up to $2 billion.
Looking ahead into 2025, Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake said, "Macquarie remains well-positioned to deliver superior performance in the medium term with its diverse business mix across annuity-style and markets-facing businesses."
Macquarie shares closed down 3.6% on the day the company reported, but they have since gained 4.1%.
