It's always painful to see an ASX stock fall heavily. That's what happened to the GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) share price last week – it has fallen more than 16% since 20 November following news related to one of its main investments.
As reported by my colleague James Mickleboro, the chair of Indian conglomerate Adani Group has been indicted in New York over his role in an "alleged multibillion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme".
It's alleged that Adani agreed to pay US$265 million in bribes to Indian government officials to win contracts that could lead to US$2 billion in profit over 20 years.
Subsequently, Kenyan President William Ruto cancelled the procurement process for the country's main airport expansion, which included an Adani Group proposal, according to the Times of India. Additionally, A Kenyan power transmission line construction agreement worth more than $700 million has been cancelled which involved an Adani subsidiary.
Adani is a core holding of GQG's funds, so the question is whether the ASX share is still good value in this situation. I think there are a few reasons why the GQG share price is attractive.
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Somewhat limited exposure to the pain
The broker Goldman Sachs pointed out that GQG has advised that more than 90% of its client assets were invested in non-Adani-related investments.
Even if that entire amount of funds under management (FUM) was written off, it still has more than 90% of its original FUM, but the GQG share price has declined 15%.
We don't know exactly how much GQG has invested in each Adani business, but the share prices of those companies have not fallen 100%. At the time of writing, for example, the Adani Enterprises share price has fallen around 20% since 19 November, and the Adani Green Energy share price is down 18%. In other words, it doesn't seem as though GQG's FUM has fallen a significant amount.
It'll be interesting to see what GQG decides to do with its position in the Adani businesses.
Cheap valuation metrics and share buyback
As indicated by Goldman Sachs, the GQG share price is probably trading at less than 10x FY25's estimated earnings, and it could pay a dividend yield of more than 7%.
Assuming GQG doesn't lose more FUM because clients take money out of the fund manager over an extended period, I think this represents a very appealing entry point with the GQG share price.
GQG itself seems to think this is a good price to invest because the fund manager has launched a share buyback of up to A$100 million, suggesting that the current valuation "significantly undervalues the company". Management also said the company had a "strong and robust balance sheet" to undertake this capital management initiative.
I think the buyback can support the GQG share price during this uncertain period.
Long-term track record
Aside from this Adani matter, GQG has a track record of delivering strong long-term investment returns for its investors, and I expect clients will not be deterred by one investment going wrong.
Even Warren Buffett has made a few bad investments over the years, such as Tesco, US airlines before COVID-19 and Dexter Shoes. Occasionally, an active investor will experience some declines.
As one of the greatest investors, Peter Lynch once said:
In this business, if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten.
GQG has made plenty of good investment decisions over the last several years, so I think the fund manager will be able to reward patient investors.
