The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has been having a volatile 12 months.
The mining giant's shares have been as high as $50.84 and as low as $38.28.
They then finished Friday's session towards the lower end of this range at $42.39.
But what's next for the Big Australian's shares? Are they going higher or lower? Let's take a look at what analysts are saying about the miner following this month's quarterly update.
Image source: Getty Images
Quarterly update
As a reminder, earlier this month the mining giant released its first quarter update and revealed that it has started FY 2025 in a positive fashion.
BHP reported iron ore production of 71.6Mt, which was was down 7% quarter on quarter but up 3% on the prior corresponding period. This was driven by a strong supply chain performance with increased capacity unlocked by PDP1
Copper production was solid, increasing 4% to 476.3kt for the quarter. Importantly, this was better than the market was expecting and underpinned by higher concentrator feed grades and recoveries at Escondida.
Overall, this led to management reaffirming its full year guidance for both copper and iron ore, as well as all other commodities.
Where next for the BHP share price?
The broker community responded relatively positively to the update and a good number of brokers have reaffirmed their buy ratings (or equivalents) on the BHP share price.
For example, Citi has put a buy rating and $46.00 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 8.5% for investors.
Macquarie and Ord Minnett have outperform and accumulate ratings on its shares with price targets of $44.00 and $45.00, respectively. This suggests more modest upside potential of 3.8% to 6.2%.
Morgan Stanley sees potential for a double-digit return from the BHP share price. It has an overweight rating and $46.85 price target on its shares. This suggests that upside of 10.5% is possible between now and this time next year.
Finally, analysts at Morgans have put an add rating and $48.00 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of just over 13% for investors over the next 12 months.
Don't forget the dividends
The consensus estimate is for fully franked dividends of US$1.46 (A$2.20) per share in FY 2025 and then US$1.18 (A$1.78) per share in FY 2026. This will mean dividend yields of 5.2% and 4.2%, respectively.
Overall, some decent total returns could be on the cards for investors if analysts are on the money with their recommendations and forecasts.
