S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stocks are charging higher today.
In late morning trade on Thursday, the ASX 200 is just about flat. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ), on the other hand, is up 2.8%.
Here's how these top producers are faring at this same time:
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are up 3.6%
- Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are up 2.7%
- Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares are up 4.0%
- Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares are up 6.7%
Santos is the only one of these four ASX 200 energy stocks, with an announcement out today that may be drawing added investor interest.
Before market open this morning, the company reported that it had inked an LNG supply contract with TotalEnergies Gas & Power Asia. The three-year and three-month contract will see Santos supply 20 LNG cargoes, or some 500,000 tonnes of LNG a year.
Here's what's helping lift the broader energy market.
ASX 200 energy stocks soar on rising oil price
The good news for investors in ASX 200 energy stocks is that global oil prices are rising.
Brent crude oil gained 1.5% overnight to trade for US$74.65 per barrel. That sees the oil price up 7.9% since hitting lows of US$69.19 on 10 September.
And it's also led to a big three week share price rebound for Santos, Woodside, Karoon and Beach Energy.
The bad news is that energy prices are spiking higher due to the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East.
As you're likely aware, over the past 24 hours, Iran has retaliated against Israel's targeted assassination of Hassan Nasrallah in a Beirut airstrike with a barrage of almost 200 missiles.
Over the past few days, Israel has also sent in ground forces across its border with Lebanon.
Likely spurring a larger jump in the oil price, and ASX 200 energy stocks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate for Iran's attack.
Netanyahu said (quoted by Bloomberg):
Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.
Should the conflict expand into a wider regional war, it could engulf Saudi Arabia and threaten Iran's growing oil production. In August, Iran produced almost 3.4 million barrels per day.
What are the experts saying?
Commenting on the potential impact on global oil prices, and by connection ASX 200 energy stocks like Woodside and Santos, independent political risk strategist Clay Siegle said (quoted by Reuters), "[Israel] will not hesitate to widen its military offensive to hit Iran directly. And Iran's oil assets are very likely on the target list."
And Iran could well have similar disruptive plans in mind.
According to Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM:
In case of an escalation, Iran's proxies, the Houthi rebels and Iraqi paramilitaries, might launch attacks on Middle East oil producers, namely Saudi Arabia.
There is now a genuine fear that oil supply will be impacted, and nervous and volatile trading is anticipated until the picture becomes clear.
While shareholders undoubtedly want to see their ASX 200 energy stock holdings keep charging higher, no one wishes to see those gains come at the cost of war.
Let's hope calmer heads prevail.
