Here's the earnings forecast to 2029 for Liontown shares

When will this lithium developer turn a profit? Let's find out.

| More on:
A male sharemarket analyst sits at his desk looking intently at his laptop with two other monitors next to him showing stock price movements

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Do you own Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares? If you do, you will no doubt be aware that it won't be long until Liontown shifts from being a lithium developer to a lithium miner.

The company is aiming to commence production in a matter of weeks. This means it could soon be generating revenue and maybe even some earnings.

But just how profitable could Liontown be in the current environment of low lithium prices? Let's see what Goldman Sachs is forecasting for the miner through to FY 2029.

Liontown earnings estimates

Firstly, it is worth noting that Goldman is among the most bearish brokers when it comes to lithium prices. So, its earnings estimates could prove short of the mark if prices improve quicker than it expects.

Though, conversely, it is equally worth noting that the broker has been among the most accurate predictors of lithium prices in recent times. So, these forecasts could end up being more precise than others.

Moving on. In FY 2025, Goldman is forecasting total spodumene production of 146kt. This is expected to underpin revenue of $143 million but an underlying loss of $162 million.

In FY 2026, total spodumene production is expected to increase to 439kt. Goldman believes this will lead to revenue of $585 million and a maiden profit of $19 million.

It will be onwards and upwards for the lithium miner from there. In FY 2027, Goldman expects spodumene production of 510kt, revenue of $794 million, and underlying earnings of $108 million.

After which, in FY 2028, the broker is forecasting spodumene production of 578kt, revenue of $985 million, and underlying earnings of $152 million.

Finally, in FY 2029, Goldman expects total spodumene production of 658kt. From this, the broker is forecasting Liontown to generate revenue of $1,326 million and underlying earnings of $330 million.

In summary, Goldman expects the following for underlying earnings:

  • FY 2025 – $162 million loss
  • FY 2026 – $19 million profit
  • FY 2027 – $108 million profit
  • FY 2028 – $152 million profit
  • FY 2029 – $330 million profit

Should you buy Liontown shares?

Goldman thinks investors should keep their powder dry for the time being. It has a neutral rating and $1.15 price target on Liontown's shares.

While this implies potential upside of 25% for investors, it still isn't enough for Goldman to be more positive. Though, it concedes there could be significant value on offer here when risks reduce. It commented:

Though perceived funding risks are largely alleviated, and cost/ramp up risks appear increasingly priced in, we rate LTR a Neutral on: 1) Valuation, where LTR is trading at a modest discount to peers, though with significant potential valuation uplift from de-risking/valuation roll-forward and a high valuation sensitivity to our LT lithium pricing; 2) Ramp up/cost risks increasingly priced in; 3) Strong medium-term capacity outlook from large, high quality resource.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

Two miners standing together.
Materials Shares

Why are BHP and other ASX 200 mining shares getting hammered on Tuesday?

A soft second-quarter update from one of the major miners appears to have spooked investors today.

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.
Materials Shares

IGO shares drop on $295 million hit

IGO is impairing assets following a review.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Materials Shares

Rio Tinto shares fall on soft second quarter update

How did Rio Tinto perform during the first half?

Read more »

A man checks his phone next to an electric vehicle charging station with his electric vehicle parked in the charging bay.
Materials Shares

Here's the lithium price forecast through to 2027

When will the tide turn for lithium miners?

Read more »

a female miner looks straight ahead at the camera wearing a hard hat, protective goggles and a high visibility vest standing in from of a mine site and looking seriously with direct eye contact.
Materials Shares

Are Rio Tinto shares a buy on a pullback?

Should investors dig into this opportunity?

Read more »

Two happy excited friends in euphoria mood after winning in a bet with a smartphone in hand.
Materials Shares

Why are Liontown shares roaring higher on Monday?

What is getting investors excited today? Let's see what it has announced.

Read more »

A man wearing a shirt, tie and hard hat sits in an office and marks dates in his diary.
Materials Shares

Own BHP shares? Here's your Q4 preview

What is the market expecting from the mining giant's update?

Read more »

A male lion with a large mane sits atop a rocky mountain outcrop surveying the view, representing the outlook for the Liontown share price in FY23
Materials Shares

Are Liontown Resources shares a buy after surging 9% this week?

Could this be time for a reversal?

Read more »