'Geopolitical risk is unlikely to subside': Should you pile into ASX defence shares right now?

With gains of up to 740% in a year, can ASX defence shares keep charging higher?

| More on:
Military soldier standing with army land vehicle as helicopters fly overhead.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Top ASX defence shares have delivered some absolutely eye-watering gains over the past year.

What kinds of gains are we talking about?

Well, over the past 12 months, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has gained a healthy 8%.

Now, here's how these leading ASX defence shares have performed over that same period:

  • Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) shares are up 99%
  • Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) shares are up 54%
  • AML3D Ltd (ASX: AL3) shares are up 280%
  • Droneshield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares are up 704%

Now those are the kinds of returns you want to see in your portfolio!

What do these companies do?

You may be familiar with these ASX defence shares already.

If not, here's a quick snapshot of what they do.

Electro Optic Systems has two business divisions: Defence Systems and Space Systems. The company's products include remote weapon systems and counter-drone technology. Electro Optic Systems recently inked a defence contract with a Western European nation.

Codan develops rugged electronics solutions for government, corporate, and consumer markets worldwide and has contracts with both the military and law enforcement. Among the favourable market fundamentals that the ASX defence share cited in its half-year reports was "increasing global military and defence spend in the Five Eyes Intelligence community."

AML3D designs and constructs 3D parts using metal additive manufacturing technology. The company recently signed new contracts with the United States Navy.

And Droneshield provides drone detection and disruption solutions to the defence sectors, commercial airports, prisons, and other critical infrastructure. Droneshield has multiple government defence contracts, including with the US.

Can ASX defence shares keep on delivering?

The conundrum with investing in ASX defence shares is that they tend to perform much better during times of high or rising global tensions.

While we ardently hope for world peace to break out, an event that would likely see ASX defence shares sold down, that's unfortunately not the most likely scenario.

Indeed, in addressing the mid-2024 outlook, Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, says bluntly, "Geopolitical risk is unlikely to subside."

According to Temple:

The war in Ukraine looks nowhere near resolution and … a Trump presidency may inject even more volatility into the geopolitical landscape given uncertainty over his support for European and Asian allies and his plan to broadly raise US tariffs.

Then there's the potential powder keg in the Middle East as Israel's battle against Hamas drags on.

Temple notes that, "The risk of expansion of the current hostilities to include an expanded confrontation with Hezbollah has increased meaningfully."

But the most worrisome conflict the world faces is a potential shooting war between the US and China.

Temple says:

The most consequential geopolitical risk is a confrontation between China and the United States. Ongoing skirmishes in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines appear to be the most likely source of potential near-term conflict.

We fervently hope wiser, calmer heads will prevail and step away from the brink.

Until then, these top ASX defence shares could well continue to deliver market-beating returns.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

man with dog on his lap looking at his phone in his home.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

Two workers at an oil rig discuss operations.
Broker Notes

Should you buy Santos, Beach Energy or Woodside shares? Here's Macquarie's top pick

Macquarie has released its new share price expectations for Santos, Beach Energy and Woodside shares.

Read more »

A green fully charged battery symbol surrounded by green charge lights representing the surging Vulcan share price today
Share Market News

Up 300% in 6 months! This soaring ASX lithium stock just took a major step to production

Marching forward.

Read more »

An old-fashioned panel of judges each holding a card with the number 10
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a happy end to the trading week this Friday.

Read more »

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A young man pointing up looking amazed, indicating a surging share price movement for an ASX company
Share Market News

Macquarie says this top ASX tech stock could rise 15%

Let's see what the broker is saying about this stock.

Read more »

Excited couple celebrating success while looking at smartphone.
Healthcare Shares

Up 680% since July, here's why 2025 was a breakout year for this hot ASX stock

With consistent contract wins, FDA clearance, and backing from Pro Medicus, 4D Medical is showing that there is a commercial…

Read more »

A male investor wearing a blue shirt looks off to the side with a miffed look on his face as the share price declines.
Share Fallers

Why Collins Foods, Monash IVF, Premier Investments, and Step One shares are tumbling today

These shares are ending the week in the red. But why?

Read more »