Down 16% over 12 months, the Telstra share price could explode 20% from here!

ASX brokers are clamouring over Telstra shares right now.

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For investors and lovers of the Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price, the past 12 months have been tough to watch.

This time last year, this ASX 200 telco was riding high, trading at around $4.36 a share, just a whicker off of Telstra's current 52-week high of $4.38.

What a difference 12 months makes. Today, those same Telstra shares are trading at $3.66 each. That's down by almost 16.3% from the pricing Telstra was commanding a year ago.

Yesterday, we also covered how Telstra cemented a share price loss of 15.8% for the 2024 financial year. To be fair, that capital loss was somewhat assuaged by Telstra's generous dividend payments. But even so, it was a rough FY24 for this ASX 200 telco.

At least the Telstra share price has recovered somewhat (to the tune of around 7%) from the 52-week low of $3.39 that we saw the company hit back in May.

But even so, even the most bullish of Telstra bulls can't argue that the past 12 months have been nothing but exceptionally tough to watch.

It seems this negativity all stems from Telstra's decision last year to halt plans to offload some of its most valuable infrastructure assets, including its 'InfraCo Fixed' division.

When this decision was announced last year, Telstra shares plunged, and have stuck to a downward trajectory ever since.

But some ASX experts reckon this 16% loss over the past 12 months represents a compelling buying opportunity for investors today.

ASX experts: Buy the Telstra share price today for 20% upside

Last week, we covered the views of ASX broker UBS on the Telstra share price. As we went through at the time, UBS reiterated a 'buy' rating on Telstra shares. That was alongside a 12-month share price target of $4.40. If realised, this would see investors enjoy a gain of just over 20% from the current pricing.

UBS pointed to the results of a recent customer survey for its optimism. The broker noted that the survey found Telstra continues to enjoy the perception of having the highest "network quality" on the market while also offering "value for money".

As such, UBS concluded that the company's mobile pricing power is "likely intact" and gives Telstra the flexibility to raise its prices.

But UBS isn't the only one eyeing off Telstra shares at their current valuation.

Last week, we also took stock of the views of another ASX broker in Goldman Sachs. Goldman also gave Telstra shares a 'buy' rating, along with a share price target of $4.25.

This broker likes Telstra's "low risk earnings" and dividend growth potential. It is currently forecasting that the telco will be able to afford 18 cents per share in dividends for FY2024, rising to 18.5 cents per share for FY25.

If Goldman is on the money here, that will give Telstra shares forward dividend yields of 4.92% and 5.05%, respectively.

So it seems that these two ASX brokers are united in their view that Telstra shares can rise meaningfully from their current pricing. But we'll have to wait and see what the next 12 months hold in store for this telco. No doubt investors will be hoping there is a major improvement over the past 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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