Why AMP says share markets 'can continue to rally' in FY25

Market fundamentals look to be improving.

| More on:
happy investor, share price rise, increase, up

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Now that we've entered FY25, it's time to think about where the general direction of the market is heading. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has drifted less than 2% into the green this year to date.

Meanwhile, AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares have caught a bid this year and have held gains of 17.5%, despite trending lower since June.

The firm remains optimistic about the continued rally in share markets in FY25.

According to Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Investments, the past financial year saw robust returns for investors.

These were driven by falling inflation, central banks cutting rates, and better-than-expected economic conditions.

"There has been a wall of worry for investors over the last year, but as is often the case, share markets climbed it," Oliver noted.

Here's the outlook for ASX shares in FY25, according to the AMP economist.

AMP sees continued market optimism

AMP identifies several key themes influencing the Aussie markets going forward. Firstly, inflation has been on a downward trend globally, which has supported global market rallies. Australian inflation meanwhile has lagged, but is expected to follow trend, Oliver says.

Central bank policies are also playing a significant role. After slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, central banks worldwide – including in Europe and North America – have begun cutting rates, a trend that's expected to continue and support market performance.

AMP, therefore, expects more volatility in stocks but believes that markets will continue to rise amid improving economic data.

As Dr Oliver explains:

Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, Canada and the Eurozone have now started to cut with the US and UK expected to start around September…

…Our base case is that share markets can continue to rally as more central banks join in cutting rates as inflation continues to fall towards central bank targets, including the Fed from around September and the RBA from around February enabling bond yields to fall and investors to focus on stronger growth in 2025. 

Also noting:

Our base case is for more constrained returns in the current financial year of 6-7% down from the 9% or so seen over the last year. However, the risk of another correction in shares is high and investors should allow for a more volatile ride than seen over the last year.

Global economic growth is also seen to be resilient, particularly in the US. This is despite regions like Europe and Japan "flirting with recession". Additionally, AI developments have boosted tech stocks, particularly in the US, contributing to the market's strength.

We saw this very early in the year and then once again around the end of the first quarter when large tech and artificial intelligence (AI) shares – such as NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) – reported bumper earnings.

Oliver says that despite these positive trends, geopolitical risks remain high. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the upcoming elections in France and the US all pose potential threats.

Forecast for balanced growth super funds

AMP suggests balanced growth superannuation funds could also return around 6%-7% in the coming year. This is around 3 percentage points lower than the previous year.

This more conservative outlook considers the potential for market corrections and increased volatility.

Many investors hold shares like AMP in their super funds.

With short-term volatility, one might be tempted to hit the "sell" button on their brokerage accounts. Or, change investment strategy in their super.

But critically, Oliver – like all the investing greats: Buffet, Munger, Dalio, and so on – advises investors to maintain a long-term view and not be swayed by short-term market movements.

"The key is to adopt a long-term strategy and turn down the noise", Dr Oliver said.

"Short term forecasting and market timing is fraught with difficulty and it's best to stick to sound long term investment principles."

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Investing Strategies

Australian dollar notes in businessman pocket suit, symbolising ex dividend day.
ETFs

Own the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS)? Here's how much you'll get paid today

Today's VAS paycheque might disappoint some investors.

Read more »

A couple sits in their lounge room with a large piggy bank on the coffee table. They smile while the male partner feeds some money into the slot while the female partner looks on with an iPad style device in her hands as though they are budgeting.
Dividend Investing

Brokers name 3 ASX dividend stocks with great yields to buy

Income investors may want to check out these income stocks.

Read more »

Hand of a woman carrying a bag of money, representing the concept of saving money or earning dividends.
Dividend Investing

Why analysts rate these ASX dividend shares as buys

Let's see why they are bullish on these names.

Read more »

A group of businesspeople clapping.
Blue Chip Shares

Buy Coles and this quality blue chip ASX 200 share in July

Analysts think the supermarket giant and this blue chip could be quality options.

Read more »

A businessman looking at his digital tablet or strategy planning in hotel conference lobby. He is happy at achieving financial goals.
Dividend Investing

Why brokers say these ASX income stocks are top buys

They have only good things to say about these income options right now.

Read more »

a bus driver looks out the window with a serious look on his face while sitting at the wheel of his vehicle.
Dividend Investing

1 ASX dividend stock down 50% to buy right now

Is this stock a good investment to go travelling with?

Read more »

A couple are happy sitting on their yacht.
Investing Strategies

It's official, Aussies are getting richer! Here's how

Here are the findings of the 2024 UBS Global Wealth Report.

Read more »

Woman smiling with her hands behind her back on her couch, symbolising passive income.
Dividend Investing

Buy these ASX dividend shares for 6%+ yields

Analysts think these high yield stocks could be great options for income investors.

Read more »