Despite the past month's sharp retrace, ASX uranium shares have been on fire over the past year.
Here's what I mean.
Over the past 12 months the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up a solid 9%.
Now, here's how these five leading ASX uranium shares have performed over this same time:
- Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares are up 77%
- Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN) shares are up 131%
- Deep Yellow Limited (ASX: DYL) shares are up 81%
- Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares are up 27%
- Alligator Energy Ltd (ASX: AGE) shares are up 49%
Boom!
And these blistering gains come after some big share price falls over the past month, spurred by a 9% retrace in uranium prices.
Here's how these five ASX uranium shares have performed since this time last month:
- Paladin shares are down 22%
- Bannerman shares are down 19%
- Deep Yellow shares are down 20%
- Boss Energy shares are down 25%
- Alligator Energy shares are down 19%
Before you break out your tiny violin for shareholders, take another gander at the 12-month gains up top.
Of course, that's all water under the bridge.
The question now is, what might investors expect from ASX uranium shares in FY 2025?
Can ASX uranium shares burn bright in FY 2025?
Every miner obviously faces its own specific operational issues each year.
Company specific variables include things like the weather in their mining locations, production levels, costs, how they progress with exploration and new project developments.
But the biggest common factor that will impact all ASX uranium shares in FY 2025 is the price they'll receive for the radioactive metal they dig from the ground.
As you may be aware, uranium prices hit 16-year highs of US$106 a pound in early February. Prices have since retraced to around US$84 per pound today.
While that's a sizeable fall, it remains well above the US$67 a pound uranium averaged in calendar year 2023. And in 2021, the average price was roughly US$30 a pound.
It's hard to predict if and when prices will again top US$100 a pound.
But I think with the nuclear renaissance we're witnessing among many major economies seeking carbon-free baseload power, uranium prices – and ASX uranium shares – are more likely to move higher in FY 2025 than lower.
It takes a long time to bring new mines into production, after all. Meaning global demand growth should continue to outpace supply growth for years yet.
Indeed, according to the World Nuclear Association, global uranium demand is likely to outpace global supply through to 2040.
And whether Australia moves forward with its own nascent nuclear ambitions or not, I believe the ongoing debate is at least likely to see the government move to ease the current restrictive policies on domestic uranium exploration and mining.
That alone could give ASX uranium shares a big boost.
