BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is traditionally one of the biggest dividend payers on the Australian share market.
The mining stock regularly pays out billions in dividends each year to its lucky shareholders.
And while the amount paid out will change each year depending on commodity prices, the dividend yields on offer with BHP stock are usually above average.
But what's next for investors? Let's have a look at what the market is expecting in FY 2024 and FY 2025.
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The BHP dividend
According to CommSec, the current consensus estimate is for fully franked dividends of $2.30 per share in FY 2024 and then $2.31 per share in FY 2025.
It is worth noting that these are estimates and not guaranteed. But if BHP were to pay out these amounts, investors would be looking at fully franked dividend yields of 5.05% and 5.1%, respectively, over the next two financial years.
This compares favourably to the historical market average dividend yield of approximately 4%.
But should you buy BHP stock for its $2.30 per share dividend? Let's see what analysts are saying.
Should you buy BHP stock?
The broker community is starting to see limited upside for the BHP share price at current levels following a solid gain over the last five weeks.
But that doesn't mean that decent total returns are not on offer with the Big Australian's shares.
For example, Morgans has an add rating and a $48.30 price target on BHP's stock. This implies a potential upside of 6%. And if you throw in dividends, the total return stretches beyond 11%.
It is a similar story over at Citi, with its analysts rating BHP as a buy with a $48.00 price target. This suggests a potential upside of 5.5% for investors. And including dividends, the total potential return increases beyond 10%.
Finally, Goldman Sachs responded to the miner's recent quarterly update by retaining its buy rating with a $49.00 price target. This implies an almost 8% upside for investors. And almost 13% including its fully franked dividends.
While the broker admittedly prefers rival Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), it still believes BHP shares are a top option for investors. It commented:
Attractive valuation, but at a premium to RIO: BHP is currently trading at ~6.0x NTM EBITDA, (25-yr average EV/EBITDA of ~6-7x) vs. RIO on ~5.5x. BHP is trading at 0.9x NAV (A$49.2/sh), vs. RIO at ~0.9x NAV. That said, we believe this premium vs. peers can be partly maintained due to ongoing superior margins and operating performance (particularly in Pilbara iron ore where BHP maintains superior FCF/t vs. peers), high returning copper growth, and lower iron ore replacement & decarbonisation capex.
From an FCF/DPS perspective, BHP is trading on a NTM FCF/DPS yield of 6%/4%, below Buy-rated RIO on 8%/5%. BHP has increased minerals capex to ~US$10bn over the medium term (above peer RIO at ~US$9-10bn).
