This soaring ASX 200 oil stock is near all-time highs. Is it too late to buy?

The ASX 200 oil stock has surged 14% in six months, atop paying a record final dividend.

| More on:
A smiling woman puts fuel into her car at a petrol pump.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Most S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) oil stocks have lost ground over the past six months.

But not Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD).

Despite retracing slightly from the 28 February record closing high, the Ampol share price is up an impressive 14% since 15 September. That's almost three times the 5% gains posted by the ASX 200 over this same period.

As you're likely aware, Ampol supplies Australia's largest branded petrol and convenience network. The company also refines, imports and markets fuels and lubricants.

So, what's sending this ASX 200 oil stock to new highs?

And has the window of opportunity closed, or is there still time to buy?

Why did the Ampol share price hit record highs?

Investors have been bidding up the Ampol share price over the past 12 months as the company continues to increase its earnings and sales volumes.

For its full 2023 results, released on 19 February, the ASX 200 oil stock reported a 2% year on year increase in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) – excluding significant items – which reached $1.30 billion.

And the company's total sales volumes leapt 17% from 2022 to an all-time high of 28.4 billion litres.

Also hitting new record highs, and pleasing passive income investors, was Ampol's final fully franked dividend of $1.80 a share. That was up 16% from the $1.55 a share final dividend for 2022, which was itself a new record high at the time.

The ASX oil stock also paid an interim dividend of 95 cents per share for a full-year payout of $2.75 a share.

At the current share price of $38.36, Ampol stock trades on a fully franked trailing yield of 7.2%.

Is it too late to buy the ASX 200 oil stock?

The Ampol share price has slipped 2.7% since hitting the all-time closing high of $39.42 on 28 February.

But I don't see any reason why it can't reset that record high, and then some, in the months ahead.

With solid earnings and sales growth, and ongoing growth in dividends, there's a lot to like about this ASX 200 oil stock.

And with Australia's population growing rapidly amid surging migration levels, the domestic demand growth picture looks good.

If the Aussie economy can avoid a recession amid higher interest rates to tamp down inflation, I believe Ampol can deliver more earnings growth ahead.

And if we do dip into a recession, much of the company's revenue is derived from fuel sales. While fuel demand would likely dip in a recession, most Aussies will still need petrol or diesel to get around.

And for those who've made the transition to electric vehicles, Ampol is also continuing to extend its EV charging network.

The evolving ASX oil stock forecasts it will have 300 charging bays in Australia and 150 charging bays in New Zealand by the end of 2024.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

A young male ASX investor raises his clenched fists in excitement because of rising ASX share prices today
Energy Shares

Guess which ASX uranium stock could rise 60%

Bell Potter thinks this stock could be seriously undervalued.

Read more »

oil and gas worker checks phone on site in front of oil and gas equipment
Energy Shares

Top investment bank downgrades ASX 200 oil stock following trading update

This big oil stock is being punished by investors...

Read more »

Oil worker using a smartphone in front of an oil rig.
Energy Shares

ASX 200 energy shares mixed despite strong quarterlies

Investors were originally positive on all three early in the session.

Read more »

a man holds his arms out and shrugs his shoulders as if indicating he doesn't know the answer to a question he's been asked.
Energy Shares

Boss Energy share price falls despite 'significant milestone'

How did Boss Energy perform during the quarter? Let's find out.

Read more »

Worker inspecting oil and gas pipeline.
Energy Shares

Are Woodside shares now a sell amid the company's US$900 million Tellurian acquisition?

The Woodside share price has come under pressure since the company announced its intention to acquire Tellurian.

Read more »

Worker on a laptop at an oil and gas pipeline.
Energy Shares

Woodside share price slips despite $3 billion quarterly revenue

Investors are studying Woodside shares following the company’s quarterly results.

Read more »

A businessman looking at his digital tablet or strategy planning in hotel conference lobby. He is happy at achieving financial goals.
Energy Shares

This ASX 200 uranium stock could rise 25%+

Analysts at Bell Potter think now could be the time to snap up this hot stock.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Earnings Results

Paladin Energy share price in focus on quarterly production data

The uranium producer had a reasonably constructive quarter.

Read more »