'Substantially below our estimate': Guess which ASX 200 stock AustralianSuper just topped up on

Australia's biggest super fund just upped its stake in an ASX 200 stock that is subject to an agreed takeover offer.

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Australia's largest superannuation fund has just upped its stake in ASX 200 stock Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

An ASX lodgement reveals that AustralianSuper has increased its position in the ASX utilities stock from 12.66% to 13.68%.

AustralianSuper is the biggest super fund in the country, with 3.1 million members and $288 billion in assets under management.

Origin is Australia's largest electricity and gas retailer.

A green-caped superhero reveals their identity with a big dollar sign on their chest.

Image source: Getty Images

Why is AustralianSuper raising its stake in this ASX 200 stock?

AustralianSuper is Origin Energy's largest shareholder.

According to The Australian, a spokesperson for AustralianSuper said the ASX 200 stock's current share price was below their long-term valuation.

The spokesperson said:

Origin's current share price is substantially below our estimate of its long-term value and this is why we have increased our holding in the company.

Origin has a unique portfolio of market leading energy assets and an advantaged position to capture value from the energy transition.

This also implies that AustralianSuper thinks the revised takeover bid from Brookfield and MidOcean, accepted by Origin earlier this year, undervalues the retailer.

What's happening with the takeover?

Origin and its suitors are still going through the motions in terms of regulatory approvals.

But as my colleague Tristan wrote last week, Brookfield and MidOcean may have to come up with a better offer.

At the time, the revised deal gave Origin an enterprise value of $18.7 billion.

The implied consideration was $8.91 apiece for the ASX 200 stock.

That was a 53.4% premium to the $5.81 Origin share price on 9 November 2022, which was the last trading day prior to the initial bid.

Origin shares closed on Thursday at $8.70 apiece, up 0.35% on a lacklustre day for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Top broker Macquarie has suggested a fair market value for the ASX 200 stock is now somewhere between $9.49 and $10.08 per share.

A shareholder vote on the proposed takeover has not yet been scheduled.

What else is happening with Origin?

Origin revealed one of the biggest profit boosts among ASX 200 stocks during earnings season.

The retailer's underlying profit for FY23 soared to $747 million, up 84% from $407 million in FY22.

The ASX 200 stock also delivered one of the biggest dividend bumps of the season.

Origin will dole out a fully franked final dividend of 20 cents per share on 29 September.

That's 21% higher than the final dividend of 16.5 cents, with 75% franking, in FY22.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Brookfield Corporation and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Brookfield. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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