S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy shares, as you'd expect, tend to outperform when fuel costs are elevated or rising.
When it comes to energy stocks like Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT), and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), it's the price of crude oil and gas that investors should monitor.
These ASX 200 energy shares can see some outsized gains when oil and gas prices are on the rise — as witnessed in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Atop share price gains, the oil and gas companies also delivered some hefty dividends.
With that in mind, here's the latest forecast for gas and oil prices from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
What's ahead for ASX 200 energy shares?
Brent crude oil was up 2.3% yesterday from the prior day, trading for US$79.49 per barrel.
That boost helped lift all three of the above-mentioned energy stocks.
Santos finished the day up 1.2%, Woodside shares gained 2.7%, and the Beach Energy share price closed up 1.7%.
Along with the daily increase in crude prices, the ASX 200 energy shares look to have received some tailwinds from the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report.
According to the EIA, Brent "crude oil prices gradually increase throughout our forecast".
The agency expects Brent crude oil to average about US$80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.
And the forecast for 2024 should also come as good news for ASX 200 energy shares, with the EIA expecting an average price of US$84 per barrel. That's partly based on falling stockpiles.
The agency noted, "We expect that global oil inventories will decline over the next five quarters."
What about the gas price?
As well as the expected lift in the crude oil price, ASX 200 energy shares could also receive some tailwinds from an uptick in gas prices.
On natural gas, the EIA said:
We expect the Henry Hub spot price will rise in the coming months as declining natural gas production narrows the existing surplus of natural gas inventories compared with the five-year average.
In the first half of the year, Henry Hub prices averaged about US$2.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
In the second half of 2023, the EIA expects those prices to average "more than" US$2.80 per MMBtu.
