Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares are up 2.3% in early trade today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock closed yesterday trading for $6.59. Shares are currently changing hands for $6.74 apiece.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% at this same time.
Now, here's why today's Qantas share price outperformance may be something we can expect to see more often.
Seven years of tailwinds ahead for the ASX 200 airline?
Qantas shares closed up 2.7% yesterday on the back of the airline's first investor day conference in four years.
Among the highlights, Qantas reported revenue from domestic travel has rebounded to 118% of pre-pandemic levels. And international revenue is tracking even better, 123% above pre-pandemic levels.
International travel demand is forecast to continue growing, outpacing the industry's ability to bring new aircraft and trained labour online.
That, Qantas said at the conference, "reinforces the opportunity of unique direct routes from Australia".
It's also likely to see ticket prices, particularly on international routes, remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
High airfares and planes flying at near capacity, combined with falling jet fuel costs, saw Qantas recently forecast an all-time high underlying profit before tax for the 2023 financial year in the range of $2.4 to $2.5 billion.
And according to the airline's head of international and domestic, Andrew David, Qantas shares will receive a lift from the international market for years to come (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).
"I've never seen such favourable international conditions," David said. "We can say that demand will outstrip supply for the immediate future and through to the end of the decade."
And it seems airlines just can't get enough craft in the air, "with continuing pent-up demand exceeding capacity".
According to David:
We have seen some moderation of those RASK [revenue per seat kilometre growth] performance numbers we saw in the first half, but we do expect to see RASK moderation well above pre-COVID levels.
How have Qantas shares been tracking?
With today's intraday gains factored in, Qantas shares have soared 22% higher over the past 12 months.
So far in 2023, the ASX 200 airline stock has gained just over 13%.
