Top broker says Telstra shares could benefit from 2023 federal budget

The telco's shares slipped on the first day of trading after the federal budget. But the company could enjoy some upcoming tailwinds.

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Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares closed down 0.46% in yesterday's trading.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) telco stock kicked off Wednesday trading for $4.33 each and ended the day trading for $4.31 apiece.

For some context, the ASX 200 finished the day down 0.12%.

This came hot on the heels of the 2023 federal budget, released after market close on Tuesday.

While Telstra shares didn't gain on the first day of trading following the release of the federal budget, the company could be set for some tailwinds from the outlined policies.

Why the 2023 federal budget could spur investor interest

It's not so much the many billions of dollars in cost of living assistance the federal budget contains that could boost Telstra shares. It's the budget's outline for population growth.

That's according to top broker UBS (courtesy of The Australian), who said the high migration levels could be a boon for the ASX telco.

The federal budget forecasts a net migration increase of 1.5 million people over the next five years. Or an average of 300,000 more migrants entering Australia every year than those leaving.

That represents a whole lot of new potential customers.

Now Telstra won't bag all of those new arrivals. Some will be young children. A very few may be Luddites. And a fair number will end up with rival telcos.

But Telstra shares could certainly benefit as the company is the largest mobile phone service provider down under. It also holds a majority (more than 40%) of the wholesale market share for NBN services.

It's difficult to estimate just how many of the 1.5 million expected new arrivals to Australia will sign up with Telstra. But it's even more difficult to imagine the ASX 200 telco won't see a lot more customers knocking at the door over the coming years.

How have Telstra shares been performing?

Telstra shares have outperformed the benchmark so far in 2023.

Year to date, the Telstra share price is up 9.1% compared to a 4.4% gain posted by the benchmark index.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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